Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2001

BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG THE NC/SC BORDER AND IS BEING NUDGED BY SFC
RIDGE BUILDING TOWARDS THE NE US. WEAK PREFRONTAL TROF SLIPPING
THROUGH SE GA ATTM WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION INCREASING...MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OF THE ALTAHAMA RIVER. IN ADDITION...SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTING SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE WEST COAST SEABREEZE AS WELL AS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AS ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY DECREASES. WEAK 1000MB-700MB MEAN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN ANY CONVECTION TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

ATYPICAL HIGHLY AMPLIFIED U/L PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE COUNTRY. RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST WITH ITS CENTER
MOVING INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY 12Z FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...RIDGE CENTER DRIFTS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND
BECOMES EASTERLY AS A RESULT BUT REMAINS LIGHT. SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BE LIMITED WITH ONLY KICKING
MECHANISM BEING SFC RIDGING TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR TRIES
TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. PWATS PROGGD TO SLIP FROM
JUST OVER 2 INCHES TO AROUND 1.75 OVER OUR INTERIOR GA COUNTIES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER THEY ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER AROUND
THE 2 INCH MARK OVER NE FL.

WILL BEGIN TO TAPER POPS WITH LOWEST CONFINED TO OUR INTERIOR GA
COUNTIES...HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FA. ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LIMIT DIRUNAL FLUXUATION OF TEMPS ALONG THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.

MARINE...GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK AND WILL CONTINUE WITH NO HIGHLIGHTS.
OFFSHORE BUOYS HAVE VEERED AND HAVE DEVELOPED A NE FLOW. WILL FOLLOW
GENERAL TREND AS IN CURRENT CWF PACKAGE.

PRELIM...
AMG 71/88/72/87 3434
SSI 75/86/75/85 4534
JAX 72/89/73/89 4535
GNV 70/90/72/90 4645 03

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

RAM