Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
210 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2001

CURRENTLY...LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION LIFTING UP OUT OF THE GLFMEX
OVER THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE AND INTO SW GA. SCT STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING OVER PAST 2 HOURS OVER NE FL PENINSULA AND EXTREME SE GA.
MOIST/UNSTABLE AMS OVER REGION (LIS BETWEEN -4 AND -06...WITH CAPES
AROUND 3000 J/KG) WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR INCREASING STORM COVERAGE
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EVENING. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY 1000MB-700MB MEAN FLOW
PERSISTS OVER THE CWA. STORMS WILL BE ENHANCED WITH INTERACTION OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND ECSB. CONVECTION SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
AND THEN LINGER INTO THE EVENING AS WAS THE CASE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
THEREFORE WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS IN THOSE AREAS THAN ADVERTISED IN
LATEST GUIDANCE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND SUGGEST
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE SHORT TERM FOR OUR AREA. MID LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTH FL AS REX PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN FLOW WHICH THE MODELS
HANDLE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENTLY. TROUGH AXIS SWINGS EASTWARD OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY LATE TUE/EARLY WED BUT
REMAINS WELL TO OUR NORTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELD LINGERS OVER THE
SE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM THEREFORE THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING CONVECTION CONTINUES.

EXTENDED...LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED. WILL CONTINUE WITH SIMILIAR
WORDING AS DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL SUPPORT DIURNAL CONVECTION.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. WEAK PRES GRAD WILL PERSIST AND WILL GIVE
WAY TO LGT/VRBL FLOW. WILL WORD TO REFLECT WINDS/SEAS HIGHER VCNTY
OF AFTN/EVE CONVECTION.

PRELIM
AMG 71/88/71/88 6755
SSI 73/87/73/86 6645
JAX 72/90/72/90 5645
GNV 70/89/71/89 4635 03

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

RAM