Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
145 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2001

CURRENTLY...AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...PERSISTENT HIGH PRES RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE GOMEX ACROSS CENTRAL FL. CLOUD STREETS SHOW
CLOUD-LEVEL RIDGE POSITION ALMOST DOWN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AT THE
SFC...WK RIDGE HAS SHIFTED S TO CENTRAL FL. HOWEVER...WEAKER RIDGING
EXTENDS NW INTO GA. THIS HAS KEPT SFC WINDS LIGHT AGAIN TODAY...EVEN
THO WINDS OFF THE DECK HAVE INCREASED OUT OF THE SW.

MODELS & FORECAST...12Z MESO-ETA A LITTLE LESS BULLISH ON POP
COVERAGE TODAY THAN THE 06Z RUN...AND PRESENT CU FIELD IS LAGGING
YESTERDAYS DEVELOPMENT STAGE BY ABOUT AN HOUR. STILL THINK GOOD
SEABREEZE MERGER WILL OCCUR OVER E CENTRAL AREAS WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND
FLOW PUSHING ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. MAY
UP E COAST EVENING POPS INDICATED BELOW BEFORE PRESS TIME.

BIG 3 MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH SFC FRONT...NOW OVER OH VALLEY...
TOWARD THE EXTREME N ZONES BY LATE SUN. AVN STILL MOST
PROGRESSIVE...MAINLY DUE TO FAIRLY DEEP LOW DEVELOPMENT OVER NC SUN.
AVN ALSO SHOWS ANOTHER DEVELOPING OVER NE TX. OTHER MODELS SHOW WEAK
WAVES ALONG FRONT WITH SIMILAR POSITIONS...WITH MUCH LESS DEPTH.
WITH NO REALLY GOOD SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO WORK WITH...THINK AVN
OVERDONE. AS A RESULT...THINK FRONT MAY BACKDOOR TO NEAR THE FL/GA
LINE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...BUT WILL NOT PUSH MUCH FARTHER THAN
OUR N CWA OVER LAND. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT GENERAL TREND OF FCST.

EXTENDED...WHAT IS LEFT OF FRONT WILL GENERALLY WASH OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH NE TO E FLOW BRIDGING FRONT. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO CURRENT
PACKAGE.

MARINE...WILL NOT INCREASE WINDS AS MUCH AS AVN...SINCE MUCH OF THIS
INCREASE IS DUE TO LOW DEVELOPMENT NE OF AREA. LITTLE CHANGE TO
PRESENT PACKAGE.

PRELIM...
AMG 73/89/73/89 3635
SSI 75/89/75/87 4545
JAX 72/91/73/90 4645
GNV 72/92/73/91 3425 31

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...SEC
AVIATION/FIRE...BLS

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-312200-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1201 PM EDT FRI AUG 31 2001

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH. STORMS WILL INITIALLY FORM NEAR INTERSTATE 75
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TOWARD INTERSTATE 95 BY EARLY EVENING.
ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

ALTHOUGH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED TODAY AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.