Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2001

PUBLIC...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AS NOTED ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SEVERAL SMALL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH IT...ONE CURRENTLY AFFLICTING SOUTHERN
PORTION OF CWA...AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO NORTHERN PART. ADDED TO
THIS IS A WEAKENING MCS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS
AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PUSHING OUT AHEAD OF IT. WHILE MODELS
KEEP THIS FEATURE BODILY OFFSHORE... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SETTLES OVER CWA SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH
EAST COAST SEABREEZE PROBABLY MAKING A LATE APPEARANCE RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST AFTER BEING PENNED UP IN THE LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA PERIODICALLY IN GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL
MAKE THE MAX CONVECTION AT ANY GIVEN TIME OR PLACE DEPENDENT ON THE
EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF ANY SHORT WAVE AND ITS INTERACTION
WITH THE DAILY SEABREEZES. RATHER THAN TRY TO OVERTHINK THIS/...
ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING...
WILL FOCUS ON THE GENERAL WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA AND KEEP UPPER CHANCE CATEGORY POPS DURING
AFTERNOONS...A LITTLE HIGHER OVER FL PORTION WHERE MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THE MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE DEEPER. ON TUESDAY NIGHT... AVN
BRINGS A MORE IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH INTO OUR AREA AND WILL
KEEP SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS IN THAT PERIOD.

EXTENDED...WITH CONTINUED GENERAL TROUGHING ALONG EAST COAST...A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT HANGS UP ACROSS GA...AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT IN DEEP SUMMER. WILL FOLLOW GENERAL MRF TREND OF
SOME DRYING OVER GA ZONES MID-LATE WEEK BEFORE RECOVERING TO NORMAL
DIURNAL ACTIVITY BY THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
DECAYING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL KEEP POPS AT OR ABOVE CLIMO OVER FL
ZONES...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST COAST WHERE STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP
DIURNAL CONVECTION QUITE ACTIVE.

MARINE...WINDS GENLY WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. SHORTWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY KICKS WINDS AND SEAS UP SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE...BUT
NOT TO EITHER SCEC OR SCA CRITERIA.

FIRE WX...NO HEADLINES.

PRELIM
AMG 72/93/73/94 2323
SSI 76/92/76/93 3423
JAX 73/94/74/95# 3535
GNV 72/94/73/94 3535

.JAX...
.FL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...LETRO.
FIRE WX/AVIATION...CARROLL.

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-082200-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1215 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2001

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...
...HEAT INDICES FROM 100 TO 105...
...SLIGHT CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF THREATENING SKIES OR SOUNDS OF
THUNDER. STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SELF ACTIVATION.

HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WILL MAKE
IT FEEL LIKE 100 TO 105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE EFFECTS CAN BE
MINIMIZED BY REDUCING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES...DRINKING PLENTY OF WATER
OR NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES...AND WEARING LIGHT-COLORED CLOTHING.

DUE TO EAST SWELLS AND A DEVELOPING ONSHORE SEA BREEZE...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY. FOR SAFETY...
SWIM ONLY AT GUARDED BEEACHES AND HEED THE ADVICE OF THE BEACH PATROL.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL