Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 AM EST TUE MAR 13 2001

CURRENTLY...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG POSSIBLY SVR STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING. PREFRONAL SQUALL CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER SE GA AND EXTREME
FL PANHANDLE IS SLOWLY ADVANCING WITH ASSOCIATED TRAINING ECHOES
CROSSING NE GULF OF MEX INTO OVER SE GA. CONVECTION HAS SHOWN AN
INCREASING TREND PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OVER THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA
...TO THE SOUTH OF THE SQUALL...WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN
THE LOWER-MID 70S AND DEWPTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH LI -1 TO -3.
KJAX VWP SHOWING THAT WIND FLOW HAS BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT
INDICATING LOW LVL JET OF 50 KTS AT 5K.

MODELS CONTINTUE TO BE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT THE
AVN BEING LIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MOVING PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
FASTER DOWNSTATE. THIS MOVEMENT SEEMS TO BE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE AS
SW-W FLOW TO CONTINUE ALOFT AND WILL LACK SGFNT KICKER. ACTUAL COLD
FRONT LAGGING BEHIND AND DRAPED THROUGH SW OHIO TO EASTERN MS AND
THEN STALLS OVER WRN CAROLINAS/NRN GA WEDNESDAY. THE MESO-ETA HAS
HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND WILL FOLLOW.

PREFRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM
THE NORTH. OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH
SWLY FLOW HELPING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO. WILL
INITIATE WITH HI POPS THIS MORNING OVER MAJORITY OF AREA AND TAPER
OFF FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO MORE CLIMO TONIGHT AND
REMAIN THERE THROUGH REMAINDER OF SHORT TERM.

EXTENDED...REMNANTS OF FRONT DOWNSTATE WORKS NORTHWARD AND PORGGED
TO BE BACK OVER SOUTHERN GA EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEPENING
SFC LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE GULF THEN OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
THEN LIFTS RAPIDLY NE. ASSOCD COLD FRONT TO PASS OVER THRUSDAY NIGHT
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY.

MARINE...WILL CONTINUE SCA HIGHLIGHT TODAY BUT EXPECTED TO SEE A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEED OVERNIGHT AS SFC RIDGE AXIS NOSES IN
FROM THE WEST. GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AGAIN THURSDAY.

PRELIM
AMG 76/47/71/49 600
SSI 76/51/68/55 700
JAX 80/51/74/55 900
GNV 81/52/73/54 710

.JAX...
GA...SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
FL...SCA FERN BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH.

RAM

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-131700-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
600 AM EST TUE MAR 13 2001

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. THIS FRONT
WILL BE BE ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE. MOST WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE
GEORGIA COAST THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED. THESE AMOUNTS
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS AND IN LOW-
LYING AREAS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS IN EFFECT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WYWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

TRABERT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE, FL
628 AM EST TUE MAR 13 2001

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0204 AM    JASPER                    FL   WIND DAMAGE
03/13/01   HAMILTON                       EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
                                          REPORTED MOBILE HOME
                                          DAMAGED ON US-41 SOUTHEAST
                                          OF JASPER. CHURCH ROOF
                                          DESTROYED 1/2 MILE SOUTH OF
                                          INTERSECTION US-41 AND
                                          SR-132 ON SR-132.

0204 AM    JASPER                    FL   WIND DAMAGE
03/13/01   HAMILTON                       EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
                                          REPORTED TREES DOWN ON SE
                                          128TH AVENUE AND ON SE 25A.

0340 AM    YULEE                     FL   WIND DAMAGE
03/13/01   NASSAU                         DAMAGE TO CHURCH. TREES
                                          AND POWERLINES DOWN.

0327 AM    KINGSLAND                 GA   WIND DAMAGE
03/13/01   CAMDEN                         UTILITY COMPANY REPORTED
                                          TREES DONW ON POWERLINES
                                          ALONG HWY 17 SOUTH OF
                                          KINGSLAND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE, FL
742 AM EST TUE MAR 13 2001

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 AM    15 MILES S HOMERVILLE     GA   WIND DAMAGE
03/13/01   CLINCH                         UTILITY COMPANY REPORTED
                                          POWERLINES DOWN ALONG HWY
                                          441.
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