Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
155 PM EDT SAT JUN 23 2001

THE FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE.
CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND MOVING EASTWARD
WHERE JUST ENOUGH SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED SUFFICIENT HEATING. OTHERWISE
THE PRECIP HAS OCCURRED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE UPPER
DIVERGENCE HAS BEEN GREATEST.

AN UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN SPINNING ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP. THIS LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A NOSEDIVE SOUTHWARD IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
WHICH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE EASTERN U.S...AND BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE OVER NORTH GEORGIA. SUNDAY...AVN/ETA
BRING SFC FRONT INTO NORTH FL PUSHING THE DRIER AIR INTO CENTRAL FL
WHILE NGM KEEPS MORE LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. THINK THE LATTER
IS CLOSER TO REALITY BUT WILL STILL UNDERCUT THE FWC POPS FOR GNV
SOUTHWARD BY A CATEGORY...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MIDDLE SECTION AND
NO POPS FOR MOST OF GA. MONDAY...WEAK FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH IN THE
GULF AND A BOUNDARY ACROSS GA WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND
WILL GO WITH 20%-40%.

EXTENDED...AN E-W RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE FA WHILE THE PESKY LOW
ALOFT MEANDERS AROUND THE TN-KY-MS REGION. THE FLOW WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND AOA NORMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS OR MAJOR CHANGES. THE FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST UNTIL TUESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE SETTLES TO THE NORTH AND WINDS
SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST.

THANKS FOR COORD MLB.

PRELIM
AMG 66/88/64/85 1--2
SSI 69/85/69/83 2113
JAX 68/88/66/86 3223
GNV 66/86/65/87 4313 28

.JAX...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...TRABERT
MARINE/SHORT TERM...ZIBURA

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-231700-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1100 AM EDT SAT JUN 23 2001

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA...

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY.  STORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
OVER NORTHEAST FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA...WHERE MORE SURFACE HEATING WILL OCCUR.  THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...
SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH.   WINDS OF THIS INTENSITY
ARE CAPABLE OF UPROOTING SMALL TREES AND OVERTURNING SHEDS AND SMALL
STRUCTURES ...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE GROUND IS SATURATED IN SOME AREAS
DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...
CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING
OF LOW LYING OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

STORM MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...SO
ANY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES WILL MOVE QUICKLY
INTO THE ADJACENT MARINE WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO SEEK SAFE
HARBOR IMMEDIATELY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER...STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD
BE ON THE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VIrSIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ZIBURA