Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 AM CST TUE FEB 27 2001

WET PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION. WARM FRONT TO LIFT NWD INTO CENTRAL
MS...DROPPING SWD LATE TONIGHT. FRONT TO STALL NEAR SRN FORECAST
AREA BORDER AND WAVER IN THIS REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. BEST PERIODS OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AS
SURFACE/850 MB FLOW TO OCCASIONALLY VEER TO THE WEST AND SWING BACK
TO THE SW. BEST PERIODS OF LIFT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...
DECREASING WED AND INCREASING AGAIN WED NIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FORECAST FOR TODAY...ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS.
THIS CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WEAKENS WED...BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WED
NIGHT AND THU. STRONG UPPER JET WILL PERSIST ACROSS MIDWEST THROUGH
WED NIGHT. JET MAX INTENSIFY AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SWD THU...
REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH SAT.

LARGE INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE FORECAST AGAIN BY THU EVENING...
CONTINUING THROUGH SAT. WARM FRONT TO LIFT BACK NWD EARLY SAT AS A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW APPROACHES ALONG THE NW GULF AND MOVES NEAR
THE LA CST SAT AFTERNOON.

AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE S OF BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. SWLY 850 MB
FLOW INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING SRN
ZONES TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. BEST 850 MB THETAE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION N OF FRONT TODAY AND TONIGHT...DIMINISHING WED...
INCREASING AGAIN WED EVENING. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SEVERE CENTRAL
AND NRN AREAS WHERE ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE HAIL NEAR SEVERE
CRITERIA.

QPF DISCUSSION: POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...NEAR 200
PERCENT OF NORMAL. NCEP AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES CENTRAL
ZONES LOOK OK BUT AMOUNTS LOOK A LITTLE LOW FOR SRN AREAS...
ESPECIALLY FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE BOUNDARY SLIPS FARTHER
S.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 67/53/61/47 9977
MEI 67/50/62/46 7876

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-281200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1125 AM CST TUE FEB 27 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND WEST OF A YAZOO CITY TO BRANDON TO COLLINS TO PURVIS LINE.
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO JUST SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE
AIRMASS WAS SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE OVER NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS OVER THIS AREA.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO VICKSBURG TO KOSCIUSKO TO WINONA
LINE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY
CAUSING FLOODING OF RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LOW LYING AREAS. THE HEAVY
RAIN MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...AND IF SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE EXTENDED OVER THIS AREA.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS WIDESPREAD AND NOT AS PERSISTENT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-281200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 AM CST TUE FEB 27 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND WEST OF A YAZOO CITY TO BRANDON TO COLLINS TO PURVIS LINE.
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO JUST SOUTH OF
COLUMBUS MISSISIPPI THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THE
AIRMASS WAS SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE OVER NORTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSISIPPI...SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS OVER THIS AREA.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A RAYVILLE LOUISIANA TO VICKSBURG TO KOSCIUSKO TO WINONA
LINE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLY
CAUSING FLOODING OF RIVERS...CREEKS...AND LOW LYING AREAS. THE HEAVY
RAIN MAY PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...AND IF SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE EXTENDED OVER THIS AREA.

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE
LESS WIDESPREAD AND NOT AS PERSISTENT. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.