Severe Thunderstorm Warning 826, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CST THU DEC 13 2001

SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO BE RATHER COMPLICATED FOR THE FIRST PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST. 500MB TROUGH AND ENERGY TO MOVE EAST OVER THE CWFA
OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH A SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. HEAVY
RAINFALL STILL A THREAT AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA.

FIRST OFF...SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES...A SURFACE LOW AND STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL ALL COMBINE TO PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT. LATEST RADAR COMPOSITE IMAGES SHOW A SQUALL
LINE GETTING FIRED UP IN CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY
INTO MISSISSIPPI BY ZONE ISSUANCE TIME. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SEVERE
WORDING MAY NOT BE NEEDED IS IN THE NORTHWEST ZONES...SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE TO THE EAST...AND LOW SHOULD TRACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THIS LINE...BUT AS SYSTEM IS FINALLY
ACCELERATING...AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH AS IN THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS. EXPECTING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL...MAINLY
BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND MORE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
55. NO WATCH ANTICIPATED FOR THE SOUTHEAST ZONES...AS RAINFALL WILL
BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN THE NORTHEAST...CLOSER TO THE TRACK OF THE
LOW. WILL LEAVE THE EXISTING WATCH IN PLACE...AND MAKE NO CHANGES
AREA-WISE.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD EXIT THE CWFA BY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE THE SURFACE LOW RACES WELL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING BY 12Z IN MOST PLACES.

BY LATE FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST...WITH A COOLER AND (DEFINITELY) DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING OVER
THE REGION. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY.

THE NEXT FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE ON SUNDAY WITH THE NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. RETURN FLOW BEGINS SETTING UP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING ON SUNDAY. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS SYSTEM ALSO. THE REMAINING
EXTENDING FORECAST LOOKS DRY AND COOLER.

TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AND SHOULD NOT DEVIATE FAR. FOR
FIRST PERIOD POPS...EVERYONE PRETTY MUCH CATEGORICAL.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 51/59/40/65/52 +-00
MEI 52/61/39/66/50 +-00

.JAN...
MS...FFA ALONG/NW OF A MERIDIAN-MONTICELLO LINE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
LA...FFA ALL NE ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
AR...FFA ALL EXTREME SE ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

32

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
141200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
117 PM CST THU DEC 13 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE BEST RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE	SOUTH AND EAST OF
A MERIDIAN TO BROOKHAVEN LINE...WHERE THE AIR WILL BE THE MOST
UNSTABLE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE INTERACTION OF THE
FRONT WITH UNSEASONABLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION
WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END MOST PLACES BY MIDNIGHT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TO BE IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A MERIDIAN TO RALEIGH TO MONTICELLO LINE.
MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN NEAR BANK FULL AND FLOODING
HAS OCCURRED AT SOME LOCATIONS. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
FLOODING WILL BE ENHANCED AS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER SATURATED
GROUND.

IF YOU LIVE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...KEEP ADVISED OF THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. BE READY
FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
434 PM CST THU DEC 13 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM                              MS   FLOODING
12/13/01   BOLIVAR                        FLOODING OF ROADS AND LOW
                                          AREAS JUST WEST OF
                                          CLEVELAND. REPORTED BY
                                          COUNTY EOC.

0430 PM                              MS   FLOODING
12/13/01   LEFLORE                        FLOODING BEGINNING ON
                                          MANY COUNTY ROADS.
                                          REPORTED BY SO.

0430 PM                              MS   FLOODING
12/13/01   GRENADA                        FLOODING BEGINNING ON
                                          MANY COUNTY ROADS.
                                          REPORTED BY SO.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
447 PM CST THU DEC 13 2001

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0430 PM                              MS   FLOODING
12/13/01   SHARKEY                        FLOODING BEGINNING ON
                                          MANY COUNTY ROADS.
                                          REPORTED BY SHERIFFS
                                          OFFICE.

0440 PM                              MS   FLOODING
12/13/01   CARROLL                        FLOODING BEGINNING ON
                                          MANY COUNTY ROADS.
                                          REPORTED BY SHERIFFS
                                          OFFICE.