Severe Thunderstorm Warning 802, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 AM CST THU NOV 29 2001

SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING STILL A THREAT FOR THE CWFA THROUGH
TODAY.

WARM FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTH OF KTUP TO KGWO TO KESF. A
LARGE AREA OF STORMS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWFA...ALONG AND WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY.

BOTH THE AVN AND ETA HAVE BEEN SIMILAR IN THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. FRONTAL WAVE IS BEGINNING ITS TREK
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY... WITH THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. LOW TO MOVE GENERALLY
NORTH ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY AND THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD (DRAGGING A FRONT)  AS THE 500MB TROUGH SWINGS EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER STILL EXISTS TODAY...ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAINFALL. FIRST THE SEVERE WEATHER...THE GREATEST
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 55
CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL OVER MOST AREAS TODAY...BUT PHENOMENAL JET AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...FRONTAL FORCING AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL COMBINE TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER. AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 COULD
SEE SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS MAINLY
ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT REGION. THE MAIN THREAT FOR AREAS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 SHOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. FOR
AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 55... THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES EXISTS IN THE WARM SECTOR AND AHEAD OF
THE VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM. AXIS OF GREATEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL RAINS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY...BUT WILL TAPER OF FROM WEST TO EAST AS SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE AREA.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS UNSETTLED. THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF RAPIDLY TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH
SOME LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE SYSTEM TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY...AND COOLER. A WEAK FRONT LOOKS TO
APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SATURDAY...BUT LOOKS DRY AT THIS
TIME. CURRENT EXTENDED LOOKS FINE AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR
CHANGES.

GUIDANCE...WILL HAVE TO MAKE PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENTS TO FIRST
PERIOD GUIDANCE. NUMBERS WERE WAY TOO WARM FOR LOWS TONIGHT (ON THE
ORDER OF 10 TO 15 DEGREES) ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND ARE ACTUALLY PRETTY NEAR THE FORECASTED HIGHS. MANY PLACES
WILL ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM THEIR NIGHTTIME LOWS OR HOLD
STEADY.  POPS LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL TAKE COMPROMISE.

PRELIM NUMBERS
JAN 73/40/56/40/63 +3000
MEI 74/42/57/40/64 +5000

.JAN...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

32

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
301200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0447 AM CST THU NOV 29 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR TUPELO TO LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER LOUISIANA AND TRACK NORTHEAST OVER
THE STATE TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE... RESULTING IN AN INCREASED RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE. AS STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
WIND DAMAGE OR TORNADOES. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE LINE AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION AND SHOULD BE
MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY.

...FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF A MERIDIAN...TO JACKSON...TO BROOKHAVEN LINE
THROUGH TODAY.

MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE PAST 48 HOURS...WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING NEARLY 7 INCHES.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. THE GROUND OVER THE WATCH AREA IS SATURATED...ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLOODING.

SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI HAS RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
LAST 48 HOURS...WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING 3 TO 4 INCHES. SOME
PONDING...FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS MAY
OCCUR.

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
301200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
0524 AM CST THU NOV 29 2001...CORRECTED 3RD PARAGRAPH...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES...IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NEAR TUPELO TO LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA. THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER LOUISIANA AND TRACK NORTHEAST OVER
THE STATE TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL INCREASE... RESULTING IN AN INCREASED RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE OR
TORNADOES. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE TORNADOES.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION AND SHOULD BE
MONITORED CLOSELY TODAY.

...FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF A MERIDIAN...TO JACKSON...TO BROOKHAVEN LINE
THROUGH TODAY.

MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA HAS RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN OVER
THE PAST 48 HOURS...WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING NEARLY 7 INCHES.
MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES LIKELY. LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. THE GROUND OVER THE WATCH AREA IS SATURATED...ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLOODING.

SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI HAS RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE
LAST 48 HOURS...WITH A FEW AREAS RECEIVING 3 TO 4 INCHES. SOME
PONDING...FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS MAY
OCCUR.

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.