Severe Thunderstorm Warning 641, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
305 PM CDT FRI SEP 7 2001

...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS FINALLY EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MONDAY...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...AND
MUCH OF LOUISIANA. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALL THE
WAY TO MICHIGAN. SINCE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE IN A
VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY...EXPECT CONTINUED MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE 12Z UPPER LEVEL MAPS SHOW A STRONG TROUGH APPROACHING THE
WESTERN PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BOTH THE AVN AND ETA MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARKANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER. (THE ETA MODEL POSITION IS FARTHER WEST THAN THE AVN
POSITION.) THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT BY 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT.

FOR POPS...WILL BLEND THE AVN AND NGM MOS GUIDANCE AND WILL FORECAST
SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACTIVITY FOR
SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LINGER LATER INTO THE NIGHT AS THE
SURFACE FRONT ENTERS THE REGION. AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE OUR SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL HERE AS BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT CONTINUED SUMMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.
PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE MAXIMUM TEMPS NO WARMER
THAN 90 THROUGH SUNDAY WITH EVEN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS
THE SURFACE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF MISSISSIPPI.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BY TUESDAY MORNING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE SEEING THE FIRST TASTE OF FALL WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 60 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY...SO WILL KEEP OUT
ANY MENTION OF RAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

.PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 73/89/73/88 1425
MEI 70/89/70/89 1425

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
15

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
209 PM CDT FRI SEP 07 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AS WELL AS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE LOWER
AND MID PORTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PUSH ANY STORMS NORTHWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE LACK OF ANY FOCUSING BOUNDARY AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
ISOLATED AROUND SUNSET BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.