Severe Thunderstorm Warning 610, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
705 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2001

.UPDATE DISCUSSION...STORMS FIRING ACROSS NE LA ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING SIMILAR TO YDY WITH MID LEVEL CANOPY ALREADY ENHANCING
ALONG I-20/SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL INTRODUCE MORE CLOUDS
CENTRAL ZONES AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE POPS TO GOOD CHANCE. ISENTROPIC
LIFT ENHANCING AHEAD OF APPROACHING...STRONG SHORTWAVE. SEVERE WX
STILL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE (READ EARLIER DISCUSSION). TWEAKING
HIGHS DOWN A CAT TOO CENTRAL ZONES...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY (MID 80S OR SO). SOUTH ZONES ALREADY COVERED FOR THIS.
20-30 POPS STILL LOOK GOOD NORTH ZONES AS FRONT/DYNAMICS APPROACH AS
THE DAY WEARS ON. UPDATES OUT SOON.

POTENT LATE SUMMER UPPER LOW/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CONTINUES TRACKING
SEWD THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA. FRONT EXTENDS SWWD
TO A JONESBORO AR-LITTLE ROCK AR-OK CITY OK LINE AT 06Z WITH
SHORTWAVE/UPPER JET ENERGY NOW DROPPING SEWD ACROSS NRN TX INTO THE
TN VALLEY. ONLY SLIGHT MODEL DISCREPANCIES THIS MORNING WITH SPEED
OF THE FRONT WITH THE AVN LOOKING BETTER ON FARTHER SOUTH POSITION
AND BETTER ON CURRENT QPF/TRENDS PER ANTECEDENT MOISTURE AROUND.

TAIL END OF COLD FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD...BUT SLOW UP
OVER CENTRAL CWFA AS BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHIFTS EWD INTO THE OH
VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. FRONT HANGS UP OVER S/W ZONES ON MON/MON
NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST.

SEE LITTLE CHANGE TO ONGOING FORECAST WITH THE CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CANT
ARGUE WITH SPC (SEE SWODY1 DISCUSSION) ABOUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING
SEVERE OVER NRN HALF OF CWFA AS COOLER 500 MB TEMPS/INCREASING MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FILTER SE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH INCREASING
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR. RRQ OF 50-70KT POLAR JET ARRIVES
ADDING TO VERTICAL MOTIONS AS WELL ALONG WITH CAPES OF 3000-4000
J/KG. OTHERWISE...MAY TWEAK POPS UP SOUTH A TAD WHERE BEST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/MOISTURE (PWAT/S CLOSER TO 2.00) WILL BE SITUATED...BUT
LESSER OF A SEVERE WX THREAT WITH WET MICROBURST MORE OF A THREAT.
THANKS KNEW FOR COORD. GENERALLY FOLLOWING MAV GUIDANCE TRENDS.

.EXTENDED...UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH MID WEEK AND FEEL SPECTRAL
MODELS OVERDOING QPF ON WED WITH MAINLY SEABREEZE ACTIVITY OVER SRN
ZONES POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...ALL EYES TURN TO TS CHANTAL. AT THIS TIME
...AVN HAS GONE MORE WITH YDYS NOGAPS WITH WWD MOTION THROUGH THE YUCATAN
AND APPROACHING THE MEXICAN/S TX COASTLINE BY THURS/FRI. DUE TO USUAL
MODEL DISCRENACIES WITH THESE SYSTEMS...NO CHANGES PLANNED.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 86/70/92/69 5221
MEI 87/68/93/67 5331

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
05/

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
201200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
650 AM CDT SUN AUG 19 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO TO HAZLEHURST TO
QUITMAN. SOUTH OF THE SAME LINE... ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE SCATTERED SEVERE AREA...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. ELSEWHERE... MICROBURST
TYPE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT...WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. COOLING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...MOIST LOW LEVELS AND DAYTIME HEATING...WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

...FLOODING...
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR...AND WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES MAY OCCUR. THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE NECESSARY TODAY. CONCERNED PERSONS
SHOULD STAY INFORMED TO FUTURE UPDATES AND STATEMENTS THROUGH
TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.