Severe Thunderstorm Warning 538, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 PM CDT FRI JUL 6 2001

ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE EXPANSION OF A 597 DM CENTRAL US
RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...RESULTING IN LESS AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION AND INCREASING
AFTN HEAT HUMIDITY.

CURRENTLY...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS FIRING THIS AFTERNOON
IN HIGH CONVECTIVE ENERGY ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH CAPES CURRENTLY RUNNING 4000 TO 5000 J/KG. IN ADDITION
WINFIELD LA PROFILER SHOWING MARKED INCREASE IN MID/UPPER LEVEL WIND
FIELD AIDING ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER CNTRL LA. TO THIS
POINT...TSTM ORGANIZATION NOT OCCURING OVER IMMEDIATE FORECAST AREA
AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST IS EXPECTED DURING
EARLY EVENING HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY NIGHT...AS MENTIONED SENSIBLE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE. EXPECT SAT TO BE HOTTEST OF TWO DAYS GIVEN
EXPECTED LESSER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. WILL HEADLINE ZONES WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES EXPECTED AROUND 105 SAT. A SLIGHT INCREASING IN DEEP
MOISTURE CONTENT EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING TSTMS MOST PLACES...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
ZONE GROUPINGS WHERE ENHANCEMENT FROM SEA BREEZE FRONT WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAKING COVERAGE A LITTLE BETTER. OVERALL...500 MB
TEMPS ~-5 DEG C WILL LIMIT CONVECTION.

IN THE EXTENDED...12Z AVN/UKMET ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AROUND EASTERN SIDE OF SOUTH CENTRAL
US RIDGE AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...BUT THEY ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...INCLUDING 00Z MRF. IF AVN DETAILS ARE
REALIZED...THERE COULD BE A HEFTY ROUND OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF
BACK-DOOR SFC FRONT TUES AFTN/EVENING...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
DROP FROM 2+ INCHES TO <1 INCH. OTHERWISE...TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE A LITTLE ABOVE JULY AVGS AND EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMERTIME :
CONVECTIVE REGIME MID/LATE WEEK.

JAN 72/98/74/97/75 11-11
MEI 69/97/72/96/75 11-11

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

43

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
071200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
328 PM CDT FRI JUL 06 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF
MISSISSIPPI. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE  STORMS WILL WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET...AND
DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS NOT LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

...SEASONAL THREATS...
HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES IN AND NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM NATCHEZ TO GRENADA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
AFTER SUNSET...AND THE HEAT INDEX SHOULD FALL BELOW 100 DEGREES
BY 9 PM. IF YOU MUST BE OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON...WEAR
LIGHTWEIGHT LIGHT COLORED CLOTHES...DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...AND
GET IN THE SHADE FREQUENTLY IF POSSIBLE.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.