Severe Thunderstorm Warning 441, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 AM CDT MON JUN 11 2001

SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR NEW ORLEANS. CIRCULATION IS INDICATED VERY
WELL IN THE LATEST 88D AND RADAR IMAGES. RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHEAST CWFA...WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY OVER
FOREST...LAMAR AND MARION COUNTIES. ONE HOUR AMOUNTS ARE UNDER HALF
AN INCH AN HOUR...WHICH IS WELL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THAT
AREA.

THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ETA AND AVN THIS
PERIOD IN RESPECT TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF T.D. ALLISON...WITH THE AVN FASTER IN SHUNTING
THE BEST ENERGY NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS RUN. SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW...BOTH CURRENTLY
OVER SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...WILL MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ENDING UP OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST GA BY 60 HOURS.

BOTH MODELS KEEP THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TODAY...AND OVER THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THE
DELTA WILL BE THE FIRST TO RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL-LIKE SUMMER
PATTERN TODAY...WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION FIRING DURING THE
GREATEST DAYTIME HEATING. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA SHOULD RETURN
TO THIS PATTERN TOMORROW...WITH THE EFFECTS OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO LOOSEN THEIR HOLD ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWFA LATE TUESDAY.  BY WEDNESDAY...THE ENTIRE CWFA SHOULD RETURN TO
A MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION REGIME...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE: TEMP GUIDANCE LOOKS FINE AND WILL ONLY MAKE SLIGHT CHANGES
ACCORDING TO CLOUD COVER. AS FAR AS POPS GO...TRENDING WITH HIGHEST
POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND LOWEST IN THE NORTHWEST. MAV GUIDANCE FOR
THE SOUTHEAST ZONES LOOKS KINDA FLAKY AS ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS
ARE FORECAST FOR TODAY...NEEDLESS TO SAY...WILL UP TO CATEGORICAL AS
PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...AND WILL
REMAIN LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN MERIDIAN AND THE COAST. WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA ON TUESDAY AS SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY LINGERS OVER THIS AREA. BY LATE
TUESDAY...CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET IN THE WEST
AND BEGIN WANING IN THE EAST AS SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER AND FURTHER
AWAY.

THE ONGOING EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS OK AND WILL ONLY MAKE COSMETIC
CHANGES.

NO NEED FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH OVER SOUTHEAST ZONES AS HEAVIEST
PRECIP IS SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH. LATEST RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE
WELL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND LOOK TO STAY THAT WAY THROUGH 24
HOURS. NCEP GUIDANCE...AND MODELS...KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO
OUR SOUTH...WITH 24 HOUR QPF TOTALS BELOW AN INCH IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST CWFA.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 86/69/89/71 5332
MEI 84/68/868/70 6443

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
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