Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1030 AM CST FRI FEB 16 2001

UPDATED ZONES TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH WORDING AND TWEAK THE SEVERE
WORDING A BIT IN ALL ZONES.

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
32

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-171200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 AM CST FRI FEB 16 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A GRENADA TO YAZOO CITY TO WINNSBORO LINE. A FEW HEAVY
RAIN-PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE DELTA AREAS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THAT LINE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE
FROM STRAIGHT-LINE AND DOWNBURST WINDS AS A SQUALL LINE OF STORMS
CROSSES THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF A BROOKHAVEN TO MACON LINE.

A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM NORTH LOUISIANA TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AS THE LOW
APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST MOVE INTO THE REGION WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY LATE MORNING. THE STORMS SHOULD BUILD
EASTWARD INTO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND AT
MIDDAY LIE ROUGHLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY. AS DAYTIME
HEATING...INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALL REACH A PEAK...
THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE LIKELY FOR SOUTH AND MUCH OF EAST
MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN 1 AND 7 PM.

THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD EXIT INTO ALABAMA EARLY TONIGHT AS COLDER
AIR SWEEPS IN FROM THE WEST.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
PROBABLY BE NECESSARY BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

...FLOODING...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS IS
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF A MACON TO
KOSCIUSKO TO LAKE PROVIDENCE TO OAK RIDGE LINE. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH PER HOUR IN THESE
AREAS STARTING LATE THIS MORNING FOR SEVERAL HOURS. EVEN THOUGH THE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH...CLUSTERS AND SHORT
LINES OF HEAVY RAIN COULD REPEATEDLY AFFECT A PARTICULAR LOCATION
FOR ABOUT 3 TO 5 HOURS AT A TIME.

THE RAINS WILL ALSO BE FALLING ON AREAS THAT RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN EARLIER THIS WEEK.  RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WAS GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE QUARTER INCH HOWEVER...THE LOCAL RUNOFF TODAY IN POOR
DRAINAGE SPOTS SHOULD EASILY PRODUCE TEMPORARY PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS AND UNDERPASSES...ESPECIALLY NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 20 MPH TO MOST
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  DURING THE FIRST
12 HOURS FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS COULD GUST
AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES BEFORE THEY DIE DOWN
EARLY SATURDAY.

RESIDENTS PLANNING ANY BOATING RECREATIONAL ACTIVITIES
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD AVOID BEING CAUGHT
ON THE OPEN WATERS OF AREA LAKES.  NORTH WINDS SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.