Severe Thunderstorm Warning 381, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT THU MAY 31 2001

LATEST OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG A KGWO-KHEZ LINE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
THIS MORNING WITH A SECOND PROMINENT OUTFLOW FROM ABOUT GRENADA TO
QUITMAN PER LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THESE TWO BOUNDARIES
DEFINE A MOIST AIRMASS WEDGE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN MS. ALSO...THERE APPEARS TO BE A PAIR OF
MCV CENTERS FROM LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTION IN THE ARKLATEX...ONE
APPROACHING KMEM AND ANOTHER NEARING KTVR AND BOTH MOVING NEWD.
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND 12Z RUC PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEDGE ZONE WITH
CAPES AS HIGH AS 3500J/KG POSSIBLE(USING 86/71). EXPECT ACTIVE
AFTERNOON TSRA IN THIS ZONE WITH OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS AND ISOLATED
SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE TO SOME DRYING ALOFT.

BOTH RUC AND MESOETA REFIRE CONVECTION ALONG THE ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT
PUSHING INTO THE OZARKS ALONG A KHRO TO KDFW LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN SWEEP THE LINE OF STORMS SEWD ACROSS THE CWFA. THIS LINE SHOULD
PRESENT THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS OUTLINED IN PREVIOUS
FORECAST DISCUSSION.

AS A RESULT...WILL MAKE A FEW CHANGES TO CURRENT ZONE PACKAGE TO
EMPHASIZE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS WHERE SOME ECHO
TRAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z...AND TO INCLUDE SEVERE FOR CENTRAL.

JAN 84/68/84/63 7712
MEI 85/67/83/62 7630

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
011200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1211 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  DEVELOP ALONG AND
ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BROOKHAVEN TO  MACON.

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS WILL HELP TRIGGER ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

ACTIVATION  OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...HAM RADIO OPERATORS
AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVERNIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.