Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
240 PM CST FRI FEB 9 2001

...COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY...

ON SATELLITE VAPOR IMAGERY UPPER TROF AXIS WAS LIFTING INTO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE WAS OBSERVED NORTH OF THE
REGION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE IN GULF INFLOW WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. ON THE SURFACE A SQUALL LINE WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WAS A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE ARCTIC
AIR WAS IN PLACE.

LOOKING AT THE SHORT TERM ALL MODELS INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL IN THE
LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS. THEY PUSH THE ARCTIC AIR NORTH OF THE
REGION WITH THE UPPER TROF. ALL MODELS WERE GENERALLY SIMILAR WITH THE
MOVEMENT OF THE LOWER AND UPPER FEATURES...BUT WILL GO WITH THE PERSISTENT
...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER AVN SOLUTION. TAKING IT PERIOD BY PERIOD. FOR
TONIGHT THE SQUALL LINE WILL BE OVER EAST/SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LOOKING AT THE
INSTABILITY INDICES HELICITY VALUES 200-400...LAPSE RATE AROUND 6-7
CELCIUS...STRONG OMEGA VALUES...LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE WINDS 30-40
KNOTS/MID LEVEL 20-25 KTS...LIFTED INDEXS AROUND -2...850 WINDS
45-50 KTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER 1.7 INCHES. SO WITH THAT IN MIND WILL
MENTION A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE EARLY EAST/SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE RIGHT
REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET WILL HELP TO BRING IN POST FRONTAL RAINS
ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE RAINS WILL
END FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST...AS A COOLER AIRMASS
FILTERS INTO THE REGION. WILL HAVE THE BEST POPS FOR THE EAST HALF.
THE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. FOR
SATURDAY SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MUCH COOLER...AS MEAN MOISTURE
IS PUSHED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE THE
REGION ONE DAY OF DRY WEATHER. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS A COLD CORE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROVIDE INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE IN THE
WEST...SPREADING TO THE EAST EARLY SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM THE WEST...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES TO
INCREASE. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT A VORT SHEAR AXIS WILL BE STRETCHED
ACROSS THE REGION...AS MEAN MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MORE RAIN.

TEMPERATURE WISE FOR TONIGHT WILL GO CLOSE TO A COMBO OF ETA/MAV
SOLUTIONS...FOR SATURDAY WILL GO WITH THE COMBO OF THE COOLER
ETA/NGM GUIDANCE...FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...MAV LOOKS TO BE TOO COOL IN
THE WEST WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS...WILL GO WITH WARMER NGM/ETA
GUIDANCE AND COOLER MAV FOR THE EAST...FOR SUNDAY...WILL GO CLOSE
WITH THE COOLER ETA TEMPS WITH THE CLOUDS...LIGHT RAIN AND EASTERLY
FLOW. WILL MENTION WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FOR TONIGHT.
SINCE IT WILL BE SUCH A DRASTIC CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHT.

QPF DISCUSSION: PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 1 INCH BY MIDNIGHT AND LESS THAN .5 INCHES BY 6AM
SATURDAY. DUE TO FORWARD SPEED OF SYNOPTIC SCALE...EXPECT AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE 1/2 INCH WITH LOCALLY 1 INCH POSSIBLE. MODELS NOT TOO
FAR APART...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE MORE GENEROUS IN THE 24 HOUR TOTALS
THAN THE NCEP 1/4 TO 1/2 SOLUTIONS.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TODAY WILL MOVE BACK AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP TO PROVIDE POST FRONTAL RAINS FOR
THE PERIOD. IT WILL END ON FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ON TAP. THIS WAS
VERIFIED BY THE MRF/EXTENDED AVN/EUROPEAN/UK/CANADIAN AND NOGAPS MOD3ELS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...

JAN 31/44/38/47  500
MEI 33/46/38/47  800

.JAN...
MS...WIND ADVISORY FOR EAST/SOUTHEAST ZONES UNTIL 03Z.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

17

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-091800-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1030 AM CST FRI FEB 9 2001

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AROUND MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE MAINLY OVER THE AREA
NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING WIND
DAMAGE DUE TO STRONG WINDS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR HOME PAGE ON THE INTERNET AT
THE FOLLOWING ADDRESS...

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LETTERS SHOULD BE LOWER CASE).

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1230 PM CST FRI FEB 09 2001

...NON PRECIPITATION...
WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS
OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF AN INDIANOLA TO RAYVILLE LOUISIANA LINE...AND NORTHWEST
OF A MERIDIAN TO MONTICELLO LINE...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR...WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH EXPECTED. WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH RIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES...AND THIS COULD CAUSE TREES AND POWERLINES TO BE
DOWNED...AS WELL AS MAKING FOR DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR BOATERS AND
DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF AN INDIANOLA
TO RAYVILLE LOUISIANA LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAMAGING
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CST FRI FEB 09 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A COLUMBUS
TO COLUMBIA LINE THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE.

THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY 6 PM AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF
MISSISSIPPI.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH 6 PM OVER EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS EVENING...SOUTHEAST OF A DE KALB TO
MONTICELLO LINE. THESE WINDS WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES EAST OF THE AREA BY 6 PM.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.