Severe Thunderstorm Warning 323, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 AM CDT SUN MAY 27 2001

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PIVOT OVER THE MID WEST. MODELS CONTINUE
FORECAST TREND SHIFTING THIS SYSTEM EWD INTO THE NE U.S. MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED NEAR THE ROCKIES WILL ALSO SHIFT
EWD...ALLOWING WEAK 850 MB RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SE
STATES TO SHIFT EWD FOR A MORE SLY COMPONENT TO LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.

FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO HAS BEGUN A
NWD SHIFT AND WAS LOCATED FROM SE AR ACROSS CENTRAL MS THIS MORNING.
MSAS DATA SHOWS SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY AND
DISTINCT DESTABILIZATION SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. RADAR ECHOES ALSO
DEVELOPING NEAR BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD AS
SURFACE DEWPOINTS INCREASE FROM THE S.

MODELS AGREE THAT SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS AREA THROUGH
THE FORECSAT PERIOD BUT IN SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT ON INTENSITY AND
TIMING OF SYSTEMS. WILL SEE SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO REGION TODAY WITH
GOOD INCREASES IN 250 MB DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON. AIR MASS TO
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE. ALTHOUGH BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE SRN
AREAS...WILL MENTION POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS CENTRAL AND N DUE
TO SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATION.

MODELS SUGGEST BRIEF JET INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES BUT AVN LOOKS WAY OVERDONE ON STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS. WILL
SEE WARM FRONT DEVELOP EWD INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE
LOW OVER MIDWEST STATES TO SHIFT EWD AS UPPER LOW MOVES E AND
ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY... EXTENDING
WWD TO PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW OVER WRN TX. WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME
SHORTWAVE MOVEMENTS THROUGH THE REGION BUT FRONT FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK UNTIL COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE W THU MORNING. MODELS CURRENTLY STALL BOUNDARY
CENTRAL SECTIONS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING IT INTO NRN MS TUE.
AVN SHIFTS BOUNDARY BACK AND FORTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH WED
NIGHT...MOVING COLD FRONT IN THU. MRF AND NOGAPS SHOW DRYING BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 85/67/85/67 4444
MEI 86/67/85/66 4444

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1235 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2001

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.