Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
522 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2001

WILL GO AHEAD AND REMOVE AFTERNOON WORDING ON POPS MOST ZONES
EXCEPT SOUTHEAST AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FROM
NATCHEZ...TO JUST NW OF JACKSON UP THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL MS ON NOSE
OF STRONG THETA ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A 35-45KT LLJ BETWEEN 1-5
KFT. AS MIXING OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING...FEEL THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WEAKEN SOME. THEN STRONGER...RENEWED CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP
AFTER MIDDAY WHEN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE SHOULD BE MORE PREVELANT AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE APPROACH OF
STRONGER JET DYNAMICS GETS VERTICAL MOTION GOING PRETTY WELL. UPDATES
OUT SOON.

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
05/

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
221200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1130 AM CDT MON MAY 21 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS AREAWIDE WILL BE DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 70 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A  LINE FROM BASTROP
LOUISIANA...TO WEST POINT MISSISSIPPI...AND ROUGHLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20.  IN THESE AREAS...AN ISOLATED  TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SHOULD BE WEAKENING. ACTIVATION OF STORM
SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THROUGH A PORTION OF TONIGHT.

...FLOODING...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO VERY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
WILL BE MAINLY THROUGH THIS EVENING NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE
PARKWAY...AND TONIGHT SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.
WHERE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR...AND WHERE MULTIPLE STORMS MOVE
OVER THE SAME AREA...TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT AS A STRONG LATE SPRING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.  AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT IN EAST TEXAS...WILL HELP
STRENGTHEN THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IN MOST OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A MERIDIAN TO BROOKHAVEN LINE...AND
SOUTHEAST OF A BASTROP LOUISIANA TO WEST POINT MISSISSIPPI LINE. THE
FRONT SHOULD CROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT TIME HOURS
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.