Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2001

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF MLU TO JAN TO
TCL...IN COLLOCATION WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS (LIS -6)...WILL
LIKELY NEED EARLY EVENING POPS IN FOR SE ZONES. OTHERWISE...PASSAGE
OF DRY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY FROM CNTRL AR TO NRN MS...WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING RELATIVELY
DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 50S.

THE MEAN POSITIONING OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE MO VALLEY AS WE HEAD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRANSITION OF REMOVING
THE FORECAST AREA FROM A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAV/FWC GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE
IN GENERAL CONSENSUS AND WILL GO WITH BLEND...BUT WILL TRIM LOWS FOR
SUN NIGHT/MON NIGHT A LITTLE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP
AND DRY DEWPOINT TEMPS (45 TO 50)...ESPECIALLY NE/EC ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE 12Z AVN/UKMET SUPPORT THE 00Z MRF ALLOWING THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION TO SHIFT BACK WEST...AS RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALLOWS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AVN INDICATES GOOD
MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE FRONT COLLOCATED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED SOME LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WED/THUR
REACH 90 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON GIVEN SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW TO
DEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS CURRENT EXTENDED AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES. RIDGE POSITION THEN RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

43

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
136 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF A WINNSBORO TO CANTON TO
MACON LINE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A BASTROP TO LEXINGTON TO COLUMBUS LINE.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NECESSARY TO THE SOUTH OF A
WINNSBORO TO CANTON TO MACON LINE.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
237 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ...COUNTY LOCATION....

1250 PM                              MS   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/12/01   NESHOBA                        STORM SPOTTER REPORTED
                                          QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN
                                          EASTERN PART OF COUNTY

0141 PM    UNION                     MS   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/12/01   NEWTON                         QUARTER SIZE HAIL
                                          REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
331 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ...COUNTY LOCATION....

1255 PM    NORTH BEND                MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/12/01   NESHOBA                        VOLUNTEER FIRE FIGHTER
                                          REPORTED DIME HAIL.

0240 PM    FOREST                    MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/12/01   SCOTT                          DIME HAIL NEAR
                                          SHERIFFS OFFICE

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
519 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A DEKALB TO
CARTHAGE TO JACKSON TO CRYSTAL SPRINGS TO BROOKHAVEN LINE. THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL. NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH...GENERALLY SOUTH OF A
ROLLING FORK...MISSISSIPPI TO LAKE PROVIDENCE...LOUISIANA TO
RAYVILLE...LOUISIANA LINE.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NECESSARY INTO THE EARLY
EVENING  HOURS SOUTH AND EAST OF A DEKALB TO CARTHAGE TO CRYSTAL
SPRINGS TO  BROOKHAVEN LINE.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE  LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL  CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT INTO THE
EARLY  EVENING HOURS.

...FLOODING...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH PONDING OF WATER IN PORTIONS OF
MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A DEKALB TO CARTHAGE TO
JACKSON TO CRYSTAL SPRINGS TO BROOKHAVEN LINE.

STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS IN SOME OF THE SAME LOCATIONS WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. DRIVERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING
OF WATER ON ROAD SURFACES WHERE HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT7
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.