Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2001

BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH OF MLU TO JAN TO
TCL...IN COLLOCATION WITH AN INSTABILITY AXIS (LIS -6)...WILL
LIKELY NEED EARLY EVENING POPS IN FOR SE ZONES. OTHERWISE...PASSAGE
OF DRY COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY FROM CNTRL AR TO NRN MS...WILL TAKE
PLACE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING RELATIVELY
DRY/STABLE AIRMASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 50S.

THE MEAN POSITIONING OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT FROM THE
HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE MO VALLEY AS WE HEAD THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRANSITION OF REMOVING
THE FORECAST AREA FROM A DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MAV/FWC GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE
IN GENERAL CONSENSUS AND WILL GO WITH BLEND...BUT WILL TRIM LOWS FOR
SUN NIGHT/MON NIGHT A LITTLE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP
AND DRY DEWPOINT TEMPS (45 TO 50)...ESPECIALLY NE/EC ZONES.

IN THE EXTENDED...THE 12Z AVN/UKMET SUPPORT THE 00Z MRF ALLOWING THE
MEAN RIDGE POSITION TO SHIFT BACK WEST...AS RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALLOWS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AVN INDICATES GOOD
MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE FRONT COLLOCATED WITH INSTABILITY AXIS.
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED SOME LOCATIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WED/THUR
REACH 90 FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON GIVEN SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW TO
DEVELOP. THIS SUPPORTS CURRENT EXTENDED AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES. RIDGE POSITION THEN RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MAKING FOR A DRY FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND.

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

43

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
136 PM CDT SAT MAY 12 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF A WINNSBORO TO CANTON TO
MACON LINE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL. NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER NORTH...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A BASTROP TO LEXINGTON TO COLUMBUS LINE.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NECESSARY TO THE SOUTH OF A
WINNSBORO TO CANTON TO MACON LINE.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.