Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 AM CST SAT MAR 3 2001

LATEST IR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING COOLING CLOUD TOPS AHEAD OF
COLD CORE LIFTING OUT OF MEXICO. THE BACKING WINDS AND COOLING ALOFT
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD CORE ARE SERVING TO REFIRE CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF...S OF KLCH. ALSO...CONVECTION REFIRING OVER SE
LA/SE MS IN PROXIMITY TO STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

AVN SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 290-310K
THETA LAYER TODAY. THIS DUE MORESO TO RISING THETA SURFACES FROM
APPROACHING COLD CORE THAN PRESSURE ADVECTION...ALTHOUGH BOTH ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL OMEGA. MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OVER THE SE 2/3 OF THE CWFA.
WILL...OBVIOUSLY...CONTINUE FFA TODAY...BUT HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD
BE OVER THE SE 2/3...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE TRAINING
CELLS WILL BE COMMON. SOME ADDITIONAL HEFTY AMOUNTS FROM TWO TO FOUR
INCHES POSSIBLE. WILL ALSO MENTION FEW SEVERE STORMS IN AREAS ALONG
AND S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE CAPES MAY APPROACH 2500 J/KG.

LIFT DIMINISHES FROM THE SW TONIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
AND DOWNGLIDE/DRYING BEGINS. WILL...HOWEVER...HAVE TO LEAVE IN SOME
POPS DUE TO EXPECTED LIGHT PRECIP. BOUNDARY LAYER COLD AIR
ADVECTION/RISING THETA SURFACES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN.

CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT
IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING SUNDAY. FURTHER
DRYING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FINALLY ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK. THE SUN
SHOULD RETURN MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...MRF SHOWING DRY NW MID LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH DECENT MOISTURE RETURN ON ITS HEELS
THURSDAY AND A CHANCE OF RAIN. NOGAPS HAS A DRIER SOLUTION. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE WILL KEEP CURRENT MENTION OF RAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN
ZONES.

JAN 62/50/56/37 +630
MEI 66/52/58/37 +74-

.JAN...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZONES 018-019-025>066-072>074 TODAY.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZONES 007>009-015-016-023>026 TODAY.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZONES 074-075 TODAY.
26

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO ISSUANCE TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1045 AM CST SAT MAR 03 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HATTIESBURG AREA.

THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A
THREAT OF TORNADOES EXISTS OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A VERY ACTIVE JET
STREAM...AND A VERY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT...WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI TODAY.
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH
FALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. VERY HEAVY RAINS THIS WEEK HAVE LEFT THE GROUND
SATURATED...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING
PROBLEMS. MANY RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS ARE IN FLOOD...AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL ONLY WORSEN THE SITUATION...ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS...AND DO
NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PL~AY IN OR NEAR FLOODWATERS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
600 AM CST SAT MAR 03 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND CENTRAL AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI.
A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HATTIESBURG AREA.

THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...A
THREAT OF TORNADOES EXISTS OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A VERY ACTIVE JET
STREAM...AND A VERY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT...WIND PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI TODAY.
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY HEAVY RAIN WHICH
FALLS...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. VERY HEAVY RAINS THIS WEEK HAVE LEFT THE GROUND
SATURATED...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING
PROBLEMS. MANY RIVERS...STREAMS...AND CREEKS ARE IN FLOOD...AND
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL ONLY WORSEN THE SITUATION...ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS...AND DO
NOT ALLOW CHILDREN TO PLAY IN OR NEAR FLOODWATERS.

FORu MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.