Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2001

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN CONTINUING OVER CWFA. 00Z PRECIP WATER
VALUES WERE AOA 2.0 OVER LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. ETA/AVN MODELS
TREND TOWARDS GRADUAL CHANGE IN PATTERN...AS SLOW-MOVING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS LIFTS NE OUT OF REGION. LATER IN THIS FORECAST
CYCLE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SWRN STATES/ ROCKIES...AS GREAT
LAKES HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E. WITH TIME...THIS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.

IN SHORT-TERM...SW FLOW CONTINUES OVER REGION AS BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS SRN STATES FROM CAROLINAS INTO LA. IN ETA/AVN/NGM...SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE TODAY...MAINLY
ERN ZONES. MODELS TREND TOWARDS MORE DIURNAL PRECIPITATION PATTERN
FROM TUE ON. BY 00Z TUE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS INTO
AL...WITH HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER SRN APPALACHIANS.

WILL EXTEND FFA THROUGH TODAY FOR ERN ZONES AS AXIS OF STRONGEST
VORTICITY PUSHES E INTO AL. GROUND ALREADY SOGGY FROM DAYS OF
PRECIP. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 POSSIBLE...SINCE PRECIP
WATER VALUES AOA 2. ISOLATED GREATER TOTALS COULD OCCUR.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH AFTERNOON...AS ETA BEGINS TO DRY
OUT REGION FROM NW. WINDS BECOMING MORE NW TO NE WITH TIME. IN
MODELS...SHEAR AXIS STILL ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN ZONES TUE/TUE NIGHT...
WITH ABUNDANT LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL KEEP TREND OF
DIURNAL PRECIP FOR TUE/TUE NIGHT.

...EXTENDED FORECAST...
SHEAR AXIS STILL IN PLACE OVER CWFA IN MRF WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
PRECIP. BY 00Z SAT...MRF DEVELOPING FRONT FROM CAN INTO SRN PLAINS.
THIS SIGNIFICANT FRONT SHIFTS INTO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AFTER 12Z
SAT... FINALLY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER SRN STATES BY
12Z SUN. DRY SUN/MON.

JAN 87/71/89/70  7453
MEI 86/71/89/69  8553

.JAN...
MS...FFA ZONES 029>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-064>066-
     072>074 TODAY.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
554 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS..FAR
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI IN AND
AROUND THE DELTA. THE CLOUD CANOPY AROUND TODAY SHOULD KEEP
INSTABILITIES MARGINAL AT BEST...THUS SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.

...FLOODING...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND EAST OF A TOMNOLEN...TO SALLIS...TO
MORTON...TO POLKVILLE
TO PRENTISS...TO KOKOMO LINE.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY. SOILS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAIN
SATURATED AN ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL UPWARDS TO 1 TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE EXITING INTO
ALABAMA AND GEORGIA BY NIGHTFALL. AS THESE FEATURES ENCOUNTER A
VERY MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL MOST LIKELY ONLY BE NEEDED FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION AS SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
554 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS..FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI IN AND AROUND THE DELTA. THE CLOUD CANOPY
AROUND TODAY SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITIES MARGINAL AT BEST...THUS
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...FLOODING...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND EAST OF A TOMNOLEN...TO SALLIS...TO
MORTON...TO POLKVILLE TO PRENTISS...TO KOKOMO LINE.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY. SOILS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAIN
SATURATED AN ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL UPWARDS TO 1 TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE EXITING INTO ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA BY NIGHTFALL. AS THESE FEATURES ENCOUNTER A VERY
MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL MOST LIKELY ONLY BE NEEDED FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION AS SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED FORMAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
554 AM CDT MON SEP 03 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS..FAR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI IN AND AROUND THE DELTA. THE CLOUD CANOPY
AROUND TODAY SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITIES MARGINAL AT BEST...THUS
SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

...FLOODING...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI ALONG AND EAST OF A TOMNOLEN...TO SALLIS...TO
MORTON...TO POLKVILLE TO PRENTISS...TO KOKOMO LINE.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI TODAY. SOILS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA REMAIN
SATURATED AN ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH
FLOODING. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL UPWARDS TO 1 TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE EXITING INTO ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA BY NIGHTFALL. AS THESE FEATURES ENCOUNTER A VERY
MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS IN PLACE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN
MISSISSIPPI AS THE DAY WEARS ON.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL MOST LIKELY ONLY BE NEEDED FOR POSSIBLE
FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION AS SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT LIKELY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.