Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
315 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2001

STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL STAY PUT THROUGH
60HRS. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SHOULD BE THE
VORT/SHEAR AXIS CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH
THE DELTA. ACTUALLY...AXIS CAN BE PRETTY WELL PICKED OUT THE THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THIS FEATURE ALL
MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH TOMORROW. AIRMASS IS
STILL TROPICAL...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S DEWPOINTS MOST REGIONS. ALSO...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH WITH THE SEABREEZE.

AVN AND ETA ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN THIS RUN. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH TO REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH 36 TO 42 HOURS
BEFORE A WAVE DEVELOPS AND BEGINS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AND HELPING PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. AVN SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE...BUT THE ETA IS ONLY 6 HOURS
BEHIND. FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE CWFA ON SUNDAY...AND CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND BECOMING
WEAKER...THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY LOOK TO
GET HUNG UP OVER COASTAL SECTIONS BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

VORT/SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH TOMORROW...WHILE
WEAKENING. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW..IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL PREVAIL AS TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING. LATE SATURDAY/EARLY
SUNDAY THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE
APPROACHING BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. BY THIS TIME GREATEST MID LEVEL
SUPPORT HAS ALSO SHIFTED MORE EAST/WEST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

IN THE EXTENDED...AREA SHOULD RETURN TO MORE OF AFT/EVE THUNDERSTORM
REGIME BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.

AS FAR AS GUIDANCE GOES...TEMPS LOOK FINE. POPS LOOK TOO WET MOST
PLACES DURING THE DAY...AND A LITTLE TOO DRY DURING THE
NIGHTTIME...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. FOCUS FOR PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE WEST...WITH THE SHEAR AXIS...SO WILL GO LIKELY/GOOD CHANCE
POPS IN THE WEST WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE EAST. FOR SATURDAY...THE
HIGHEST POPS SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHEAR AXIS. ON
SUNDAY...THE POPS WILL BE THE HIGHEST IN THE NORTH...WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 74/88/74/91  4533
MEI 73/89/74/91  4533

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
32

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
281200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 PM CDT FRI JUL 27 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
WESTERN SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTH
AND EAST MISSISSIPPI. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND MAINTAIN THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED,
ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS  LIGHTNING.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL, IN RESPONSE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
,WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.