Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CST FRI MAR 2 2001

AN EXTREMELY WET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED
FROM NEW MEXICO SOUTHWARD WELL INTO OLD MEXICO. SHORT WAVES CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF OLD MEXICO INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF COASTAL STATES FROM TEXAS TO
MISSISSIPPI. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS LOCATED IN
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WITH A WARM FRONT EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. A TORNADO WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WHICH INCLUDES
SIX OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE WARM UNSTABLE AIR.

THE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM THE TROPICS...THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF COASTAL STATES. ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO SATURDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE AVN IS SLOWER THAN THE ETA OR NGM MODELS IN PUSHING THE SURFACE
LOW NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...AVN MODEL HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT
MODEL AND APPEARS TO BE THE BEST MODEL TO GO WITH AT THIS TIME. WITH
SLOWER AVN SOLUTION...WOULD NOT RULE OUT POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SEVERE
STORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

WILL GO WITH SLOWER AVN MODEL TIMING OF SURFACE LOW. THE AVN MODEL
PLACES THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY 00Z
SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY MOVES IT NORTHEASTWARD IN THE NEXT 6 HOUR
PERIOD. AS LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DECREASE WITH ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

TEMPERATURES...EXPECT EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES TO BE THE
WARMEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THEY WILL TEND TO BE MORE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SURFACE FRONT. WILL STAY CLOSEST TO AVN MOS
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

24 HOUR QPF FORECAST: WITH THE EXPECTATION OF CONTINUED PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY. SUBSTANTIAL RAINS HAVE OCCURRED
OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE GROUND IS
SATURATED AND RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE RUNNING HIGH. BEST CHANCE OF
FLOODING RAINS IN FORECAST AREA WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLUMBUS TO JACKSON TO VICKSBURG TO WINNSBORO...LOUISIANA
LINE...WHERE WIDESPREAD 2 -3 INCH AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME
LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN.

EXTENDED: SHOULD FINALLY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN IN EXTENDED PERIOD
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD
MISSISSIPPI. WILL INTRODUCE NEXT RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS MRF MODEL INDICATES SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
JAN 55/62/45/51 ++82
MEI 61/69/47/51 ++93

.JAN...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF OUR MS ZONES.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL OF OUR NE LA ZONES.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OUR SE AR ZONES.

15

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>
074-031200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
100 PM CST FRI MAR 02 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT SOUTH AND
EAST OF A VIDALIA TO CANTON TO DEKALB LINE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHER OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTH OF A
PRENTISS TO LAUREL LINE. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. HOWEVER...A DISTINCT TORNADO THREAT EXISTS OVER THE HIGHER
THREAT AREA IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A VERY ACTIVE JET
STREAM...AND A VERY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMPOSPERE. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS NOT GREAT...WIND PROFILES WILL BE OPTIMAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
OVER SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

PERSONS IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS AND UPDATES
CONCERNING THIS VOLATILE WEATHER SITUATION.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI.

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER SATURATED GROUNDS. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING UP TO 5
INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. MANY STREAMS AND CREEKS ARE ALREADY
NEAR BANKFULL...AND THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY SERIOUSLY
AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

ALL PERSONS...ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR CREEKS AND STREAMS...SHOULD STAY
ALERT FOR R2APIDLY RISING WATER...AND BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO HIGHER
GROUND SHOULD FLOODING OCCUR.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.