Flash Flood Warning 100, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1140 AM CST WED DEC 12 2001

UPDATED E-CENTRAL LA ZONES FOR SVR STORM WATCH 844 TIL 4 PM.
CONTINUING FLASH FLOOD WATCH W/NW 1/3 OR CWFA THROUGH TONIGHT.
LEADING EDGE OF RAIN NOW FROM NEAR BASTROP LA...TO DERMOTT ARKANSAS
TO NEAR GRENADA AND GREENWOOD. MESO DATA DOES SHOW AN INSTABILITY
NOTCH EXTENDING INTO EXTREME SW CWFA WHERE SOME HEATING AND WARMING
/THINNING CIRRUS IS OVERHEAD LENDING TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPS. PER SHEAR
PARAMETERS...WATCH LOOK VALID AS SOME LOW-TOPPED BOWS MAY OCCUR WITH
SHORT-LIVED POSSIBLE TORNADOES AS WELL WHERE ANY MESO LOWS POSSIBLY FORM
ON EDGE OF THESE BOWS. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM RADARS...HAVE NO DOUBT
THIS IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...JUST LOWER MINS IN COOLER/STABLE
SECTOR NE/E CWFA AND WARMED UP THINGS IN THE FAR SW. MOTION OF
LARGE-SCALE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE LOOKS TO HAVE SLOWED SO HAVE ALSO
DOWNPLAYED POPS A LITTLE MORE ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. ZFP UPDATE
ALREADY OUT WITH SFP UPDATE OUT SOON.

.JAN...
MS...FFA ALONG/W OF A GRENADA-YAZOO CITY-VICKSBURG-BUDE LINE
     TIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LA...FFA ALL NE ZONES WEDNESDAY.
AR...FFA ALL EXTREME SE ZONES WEDNESDAY.

05/

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
131200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1235 PM CST WED DEC 12 2001

...THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WEST OF A
LINE FROM ABBOTT...TO FLOWOOD...TO BUDE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL TO ONE INCH
IN DIAMETER. HOWEVER...THROUGH 4 PM TODAY...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DAVIS ISLAND
LOUISIANA...TO TENSAS BLUFF...TO WINNSBORO.

A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH THE
FRONT...AS MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS INTENSIFY OVER THE
REGION. WITH ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BECOME NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS...NORTHEAST LOUISIANA... AND MISSISSIPPI.

...FLOODING...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR
AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF A GRENADA TO YAZOO CITY TO VICKSBURG TO
BUDE LINE. SINCE MANY RIVERS AND CREEKS WILL REMAIN NEAR
BANK-FULL...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING IN THE DELTA
REGION WILL BE ENHANCED AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MAY OCCUR
REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS
EAST AND THE REST OF SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT.

A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE
LIKELY IN THE WATCH AREA THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. RAINFALL COULD PERSIST OVER MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND ADDITIONAL
WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED.

IF YOU LIVE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...KEEP ADVISED OF THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO. BE READY
FOR QUICK ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.