Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
249 PM EST TUE JUN 19 2001

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST CONCERNING
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...

17Z SURFACE CHART SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA AND THEN INTO EAST
CENTRAL MISSOURI. A CU FIELD HAS BROKEN OUT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT AT 18Z.  KIWX RADAR HAS A FEW CELLS POP WITH THE STRONGEST
CELL OVER FOUNTAIN COUNTY. 12Z DTX AND ILX SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY
AIR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT IT IS UNSTABLE WITH
LI'S BETWEEN -8 AND -10. UNMODIFIED CAPES RANGE FROM 2800 TO 3100
J/KG. LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS OCCURRING AT THE FRONTAL
SURFACE AT THIS TIME.

MODELS AVAILABLE ARE THE ETA...MESOETA AND THE AVN. ALL MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING THE FRONT EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z. BASED ON PAST
MOVEMENT...WILL LEAN TOWARD A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT IN
MAKING THE FORECAST.   A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES FOLLOW THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WHICH WILL PROLONG THE CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE
FINAL SHORT WAVE FROM CENTRAL CANADA MOVES THROUGH.

WITH VERY UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE CONTINUES TO BE
A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE EAST OF A LINE FROM COLDWATER MICHIGAN TO MARION
INDIANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE NIGHT...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH.

FWC GUIDANCE WAS A LITTLE COOL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT IT LOOKS
TO BE TOO WARM FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS NORTHWEST.  FWC GUIDANCE LOOKS
CLOSE AND WILL FOLLOW FOR SOUTHEAST HALF.

EXTENDED...FINAL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY USHERING IN A
COOLER AND DRY WEEKEND...BUT WARM AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE CAPPED SO WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUjGH
TUESDAY. INDMISFWA AVAILABLE.

.IWX...NONE.

GLL

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-200000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1124 AM EST TUE JUN 19 2001

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA...SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWEST ACROSS
EXTREME NORTHWEST INDIANA INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL MARCH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A
WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. THE AIR IS DRY AND THAT WILL LIMIT
WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
CAN BECOME SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER WEAK WIND SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD PREVENT ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR LOCAL RADIO OR TELEVISION...FOR
THE LATEST INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONCERNING
THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATsHER THREAT.

GLL