Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
145 AM EST MON MAY 7 2001

LATEST TRENDS ON KIWX RADAR SHOWS SHRA HAVE DISSIPATED OVER MUCH OF
THE CWA. ADDITIONAL SMALL AREA MOVING UP INTO THE SE PORTION ATTM
BUT IT ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS SQUEEZE
PLAY ON OVER THE MIDWEST AS WARM FRONT STILL HUNG UP OVER INDIANA
ROUGHLY FROM VPZ TO MIE WHILE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF IA AND MO WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT NOW INTO W
IL. NARROW AREA OF CLEARING IN WARM SECTOR OVER SW IN AND C IL. FCST
TO FOCUS ON TIMING AND SEVERITY OF PRECIP FIRST TWO PERIODS. WILL
MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND MAKE LAST MINUTE DECISIONS FOR MORNING
WORDING FOR SHRA ALONG WARM FRONT. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON
MOVEMENT OF FRONT THROUGH THE CWA. FRONT TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS F12-
24 MOVING FROM W IL INTO C IN. MOVEMENT THEN SLOWS SOMEWHAT THRU
36HRS BY SFC HIGH ANCHORED ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD...BUT STILL MAKES
ITS NEAR OR JUST PAST E CWA BY 12Z TUE. MAIN LINE OF STORMS NOT
EXPECTED IN WEST CWA TILL AFTER NOON BUT MESOETA HAS LI OF -2 AND
CAPES NEAR 1000J/KG BY 15Z SO COULD SEE SOME SCT TSRA POP UP AHEAD OF
THAT. THEREFORE WILL JUST GO LIKELY IN WEST WITH NO MENTION OF TIMING
TODAY AND CHANCE WITH EVENING WORDING TONIGHT. WILL STAY WITH LIKELY
TODAY AND TONIGHT IN MIDDLE AND USE AFTERNOON AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT
TIMING. WILL DROP DOWN TO HIGH CHANCE IN EAST TODAY WITH LATE
AFTERNOON TIMING...LIKELY TONIGHT AND SMALL CHANCE EARLY MORNING TUE.
WITH LI REACHING -5 AND CAPES 1500-2000J/KG ALONG WITH SLGT RISK OVER
ENTIRE CWA IN LATEST SWODY1...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF STRONG STORMS.
WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE
WITH MID LEVELS AT 40-45KTS. DAMAGING WINDS STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH AS
SQUALL LINE TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED. WITH STRONG OMEGA
FIELD AHEAD OF FRONT AND WBZ AROUND 9KFT...HAIL SEEMS MORE LIKELY
THREAT. NO COLD AIR TO SPEAK OF BEHIND FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
CHANGE IN TEMPS. FAN TOO COOL ON HIGHS AND WILL USE BLEND ON LOWS.

.IWX...NONE.

JAL

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-080000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1145 AM EST MON MAY 7 2001

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE...BUT
FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED TO URBAN AREAS...SMALL CREEKS AND DITCHES.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...TO NORTHWEST OHIO BY LATE THIS EVENING. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AROUND 80...ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WILL CREATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE THE FORM OF A SQUALL
LINE...AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF
LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
NORTHWEST OHIO DURING THE EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STAY TUNED TO NOkAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
UPDATES...AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

LASHLEY