Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
215 PM EST SAT NOV 24 2001

MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FCST CENTER AROUND PSBL SVR STORMS EARLY THIS
EVE...TIMING OF PRECIP OUT OF THE FA TNGT...CLRG TIMING TOMORROW AND
RAIN CHANCES ON MONDAY. LATEST SFC/UA ANLYS AND H20 VAPOR PIX WERE
SHOWING A STG SFC AND UPR LOW SPINNING ACRS WRN IA. KIND-88D WAS
SHOWING A SLUG OF MODERATE RAINS LIFTING NE ACRS MOST OF THE
CWA...WHILE VSBL PIX WERE SHOWING A DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO THE SRN
HALF OF ILLINOIS JUST AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FNT THAT WAS ACRS WRN
PARTS OF IL. PLNTY OF JUICY AIR IN PLACE WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE 55
TO 60 DEGREE RANGE AND ALSO VERY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WITH 50 KT H8
AND 90 KT H5 JET NOSING INTO THE WRN OH VLY FM THE LWR MSP VLY.
INSTABILITY LACKING ATTM...BUT DRY SLOT PUNCHING THROUGH DURING THE
EVE ALONG WITH AN UPR S/W MAY DESTABILIZE THINGS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME DAMAGING WINDS WITH A LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH JUST
AHEAD OR ALONG THE OCCLUDED FNT. STORMS ACRS THE GULF STATES WL TEND
TO WEAKEN THE IMPACT OF OH VLY STORMS...HOWEVER. MODELS ARE IN
EXTREMELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON PUSHING THE OCCLUDED FNT THROUGH IN THE
00Z-06Z TIME-FRAME TNGT. DRY SLOT SHOULD ALREADY BE INTO FAR WRN
COUNTIES BY ISSUANCE TIME...SO WL GO WITH CHC POPS THERE AND
LIKLEY-CAT POPS FURTHER E. AT ANY RATE...RN SHOULD BE ENDING
COMPLETELY OVRNGT W AND BE SCT IN THE E.

MODEL TIME SECS KEEP LOTS OF LOW LVL MOIST AROUND THROUGH MID TO LATE
AFT TOMORROW AS WK SFC HIGH PRES TAKES OVER AND A FLAT UPR RIDGE
APPROACES FM THE W. MODELS MOV WRAPAROUND MOIST JUST N OF THE
FA. WL JUST GO WITH MOSTLY CLDY SKIES WITH PARTIAL CLRG LATE. LOW
LVLS DRY SUN NGT AS UPR RIDGE PASSES AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERS JUST
TO OUR E. VERY SIMILAR SYS TO TODAYS MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
MON EVE. HOWEVER...MOIST NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS ONE.
STILL...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH LIFT TO BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AT LEAST
SOME SCT ACTIVITY STARTING LATE MONDAY. PREFER STRONGER AVN/NGM SOL
WITH THIS SYS AS ETA APPEARS TO BE THE ODD ONE OUT.

EXTENDED HAS NICE DRYING ON TUE IN THE WAKE OF THE SECOND SYS.
SYS MOVES ACRS THE GULF STATES/TN VLY MIDWEEK AND MAY DRAW ENOUGH
MOIST/LIFT ACRS SERN ZONES TO MENTION SOME PRECIP...BUT THE REST OF
THE FA LOOKS DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BUILDING HIGH PRES.

RAPID DEPATURE NE OF THE CURRENT UPR LOW SHOULD KEEP THE CD AIR FM
COMING DOWN AND PREFER WARMER FWC NUMBERS TNGT AND TOMORROW AS A
RESULT. MOS SIMILAR AFT TOMORROW AND LOOKS REASONABLE WITH SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPS ON MON AS APPROACHING SYS HELPS INCRS THE SRLY INFLOW FM
THE GULF.

.IND...NONE.
KOCH