Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PD INCLUDE TIMING OF CONVECTION OVR CWA
THIS EVENING AND MOVMNT OF CDFNT ACRS STATE ON FRI. LONGER TERM
CONCERN INCLUDES MCS DVLPMT AND MOVMT TO OUR WEST LT SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN AND AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON MRNG.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING CDFNT STILL ARND THE SUX AND OMA AREAS
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT EWD MOVMT SINCE 15Z. ETA MODEL HAD THE BEST
FRONTAL POSITION AT 18Z WITH THE AVN TOO QUICK. WL STAY WITH THE ETA
MODEL THIS FCST PACKAGE AS ITS RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY HAS BEEN THE
BEST WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONG UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WRN
SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE SCALE ASCENT/UPR LVL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET FORECAST ACRS STATE IN THE 06Z-12Z TIME
FRAME SO BEST CHANCES FOR WDSPRD RAINFALL WL BE LT TNT INTO THE MID
MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY. PWATS IN THE 1.75-2.00 INCH RANGE SO WL
MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACRS THE WRN HALF OF THE CWA. ETA
FRONTAL POSITION SUGGESTS BNDRY TO BE JUST WEST OF PIA BY 12Z WITH
FRONTAL DEFINITION BECOMING LESS DEFINED AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
SHIFTS WELL NORTH INTO SRN CANADA. 850-500 MB OMEGA SHIFTS EAST OF
CWA AFTR 18Z SO WL CUT PRECIP CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
MORNING.

CDFNT TO SHIFT EAST OF THE STATE BY LATE AFTN FRIDAY AS PACIFIC AIR
MASS INVADES THE MIDWEST FOR PART OF THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH TO MOVE
ACRS TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS FCST TO SHIFT TO OUR
EAST SAT NIGHT. RETURN FLOW ALRDY SETTING UP ACRS THE PLAINS WITH
ETA MCS MACROS INDICATING FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE THETA-E ADV MOVING
ACRS NRN MO AND SRN IA SAT NIGHT AND SUN MRNG. AVN NOT AS AGGRESSIVE
SAT NIGHT BUT PICKS UP ON LOW AND MID LVL WARM ADV PATTERN SETTING
UP TO OUR WEST SUN NIGHT. EXTENDED NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT AS MIDWEST BETWEEN WEST-EAST ORIENTATED RIDGE AND STRONGER
WESTERLY FLOW JUST TO OUR NORTH...AN OFTEN FAVORED LOCATION FOR
MCS DVLPMT. JUST WHERE THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WILL DEVELOP AND
MOVE EARLY NEXT WEEK IS A REAL CHALLENGE. FOR NOW...WL INTRODUCE
CHANCES OF PRECIP SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACRS THE NORTH AND LEAVE THE
REST OF THE EFP AS IS AND SEE HOW LATER MODEL RUNS HANDLE THE RIDGE
POSITION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NOT A GREAT DEAL TO ARGUE ABOUT WITH
GUID TNT...HOWEVER...WITH THE TREND TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT AND PRECIP
ON FRIDAY...WL TEND TO KEEP THE NUMBERS BELOW GUID...ESP EAST.

THANKS TO LOT AND DVN FOR THE COORD THIS AFTN.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...

SPI TB 068/083 057/084 062 44851
PIA WB 066/080 055/082 060 44851
DEC TB 068/083 057/084 062 44851
CMI TB 068/078 056/082 060 44862
MTO TB 069/082 059/082 062 44762
LWV TB 072/084 060/085 064 44662

.ILX...NONE.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
609 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0557 PM    BIRMINGHAM                IL   WIND DAMAGE
06/14/01   SCHUYLER                       SMALL TREES BLOWN DOWN.
                                          FROM COUNTY SHERIFF.

KCH