Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO ADD FLOOD WATCH...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
245 AM CST FRI FEB 9 2001

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM DVN TO COU TO
JUST WEST OF SGF.  LOTS OF WAVES ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE MOST
PROMINANT ONE COMING NORTHEAST OUT OF OK. COLD AIR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT HAS SET UP QUITE AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS ERN IA
AND CEN MO.  THIS SHALLOW COLD AIR IS UNDER CUTTING THE ABUNDANT
WARM AIR AT 850H. 850H WARM IS OVERUNNING THIS SFC BOUNDARY WITH
LOTS OF FZRA BEING REPORTED ACROSS WRN MO.  850H FRONT IS HANGING
BACK ALONG A DSM TO MKC TO JLN LINE.

LOTS OF CONCERNS TDY AS BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS CEN IL...WITH
RETURN OF THE SHRA...THEN THE CHANGEOVER TO POSSIBLY FZRA THEN
SNOW.  DIFFERENCES AGAIN IN THE MODELS TDY WITH ALL THE MODELS
TRYING TO FIND A HAPPY MEDUIM.  ETA IS TENDING TO SLOW DOWN TO AVN
SOLUTION...WHILE THE AVN SEEMS TO BE SPEEDING UP TOWARDS THE ETA.
SO PREFER A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE ETA/AVN THIS MODEL CYCLE.   SFC
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY ON THE MOVE INTO THE EXTREME NWRN SECTIONS OF CEN
IL WITH GBG ALREADY AT 36 DEG.  EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE BACK INTO CEN IL
SHORTLY AS SFC WAVE IN SWRN MO MOVES NE TOWARDS CHI.  SFC FRONT
FILTERING INTO GBG AND PIA BY 12Z LEADS TO CONCERNS OF FZRA AS
OVERUNNING PCPN OVER NEAR FREEZING SFC TEMPS LEADS TO ICE
ACCUMULATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.  SO WILL ISSUE A WINTER WX
ADVIS WEST OF THE IL RVR TDY TO CVR FZRA THREAT AND EVENTULLY
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW.  MODELS IN THE UPR LVLS SHOW COUPLED JET
STRUCTURE ALSO DIRECTLY OVER CEN IL BY 12Z...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
INCREASED RAINFALL AND EVENTUAL SNOW TOTALS TDY.  SO WILL KEEP FLOOD
WATCH GOING...AS ANY MORE RAIN WILL ONLY COMPLICATE FLOODING
PROBLEMS IN THIS AREA.  WILL ALSO BEEF UP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AMOUNTS
FOR THE ADVIS AREA TO A 2-4 INCH RANGE.

WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE RAIN TO SNOW TRENDS ACROSS THE CWA TDY
AS MODELS TAKE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z/SAT.  WILL GO WITH A
FALLING TEMPS WORDING IN MOST AREAS AS COLD FRONT REMINDS US THAT
ITS STILL WINTER.

WILL KEEP A LOW POP GOING IN ERN AND SERN SECTIONS OF CEN IL THIS
EVE FOR ANY LINGERING SNOW.  THINGS CLR OUT RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER AT
03Z/SAT WITH CAA CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.  GUID NUMBER ALL VERY
SIMILIAR WITH LOWS...SO WILL FOLLOW THESE AS GRAD SLACKENS BY
MORNING ALLOWING FOR A NICE COOL DOWN.

NEXT S/WV KICK OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY.  THIS S/WV RAPIDLY
MOVES NORTH INTO WI BY 06Z/MON.  MOST OF THE QPF STAYS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CWA.  SO WILL MAKE A MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE PIA
SECTION AND DROP SNOW CHC FOR MON.  WILL CONTINUE WITH SNOW CHC ON
TUES AS ANOTHER WK IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

COORDINATED WITH DVN...CHI...LSX...THANKS.

SPI OA 057/016 030/015 039 22+20
PIA OA 055/013 025/012 037 22+40
DEC OA 055/015 030/015 039 22+40
CMI OA 056/018 029/018 0938 22+40
MTO OA 058/020 029/018 041 22+40
LWV TA 060/023 032/017 042 22+40

.ILX...FLOOD WATCH THIS MORNING ZNS 27>31..36..37..40.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ZNS 27>31..36..37..40.

KETCHAM

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-091701-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
601 AM CST FRI FEB 9 2001

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING. BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS TODAY OR TONIGHT.

A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS TODAY
PRODUCING A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. HEAVY RAINS OF 1 INCH OR MORE
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND MAY PRODUCE FLOODING.

THE RAIN WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE TO FREEZJING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW
LATER TODAY...PRODUCING DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

KETCHAM

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-091701-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
715 AM CST FRI FEB 9 2001

THERE IS A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF A LINE FROM GIBSON CITY TO MONTICELLO TO PANA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS
MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...WHERE HEAVY RAINS
OF ONE INCH OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAIN CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN AND
THEN SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM BLOOMINGTON
TO TAYLORVILLE. ICY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BY THIS EVENING.

PEOPLE PLANNING TRAVEL ANYWHERE IN THE MIDWEST TODAY ARE ADVISED TO
KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL RAPIDLY CHANGE
WITH THIS FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM.

MILLER