Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
215 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2001

CONCERNS FOR THIS PERIOD INCLUDE MONITORING HEAT INDICIES NEXT
COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS AND CONVECTION CHCS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

VIS SAT SHOWING WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...MOVING
THROUGH EXTREME EASTERN IA AND WESTERN IL. CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA AND NOW NORTHWEST IL...JUST
BEGINNING TO ENTER MY NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE WITH CAPES SHOWING ON THE ORDER OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND LI/S
-7 TO -9. WITH DEWPTS IN LOW TO MID 70S AND TMPS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S...SEE NO REASON WHY CONVECTION WON/T CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SPC HAS BOXED MUCH OF MY CWA INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THIS CONVECTION. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOW LVL JET AND
BEST WAA FOCUS IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL
LIKLEY RESULT IN ANOTHER MCS DVLPG OVERNIGHT AND MOVING SOUTH AND
EAST. LAST NIGHTS STAYED TO OUR NORTH...BUT WITH INITIATION OF THIS
ONE A BIT FUTHER SW FROM LAST NIGHTS...BUT STILL WILL LIKELY MISS
OUR AREA. DO NOT PLAN ON GETTING FANCY AND WILL KEEP 30 POPS GOING
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

DAY 2 OUTLOOK MENTIONS CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN
NORTHERN ILLINOIS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
WEDS...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS NOW EVOLVING. BEST CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE
DURING THAT TIME...BUT WILL NOT GET SPECIFIC WITH TIMING OF PCPN IN
ZONES. THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY SETS UP ACROSS
OR SW OF THE AREA.

EXTENDED NOW SHOWING THAT SAT AND SUNDAY MAY BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT NOT READY TO GIVE UP QUITE YET. WILL KEEP WITH
PERSISTANCE.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING OUT OF THE PLAINS SEEMS TO
BE A BIT SLOWER MOVING IN...SO WILL INTRODUCE CHC POPS FOR TUESDAY.

GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK TO BE ONLINE WITH CURRENT THINKING. WILL NOT
DEVIATE MUCH FROM THEM WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AND
HIGHS AROUND OR INTO THE LOWER 90S. TMP OF 93 AND DEWPT OF 75 GIVES
HEAT INDEX 0F 104. HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
TOMORROW...BUT WILL BE UP TO MID CREW TO MAKE THAT CALL.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION WITH LOT.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...

SPI BB 073/093 073/092 073 26643
PIA BB 073/093 074/091 073 26643
DEC BB 072/092 073/092 072 26643
5CMI BB 072/091 072/091 072 26433
MTO BB 071/090 072/092 072 26433
LWV BB 072 092 073/092 073 26333

.ILX...NONE.

FISHER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-171730-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1115 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2001

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

TROPICAL LIKE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TOWARD 90
DEGREES WILL RESULT IN UNCOMFORTABLE OUTDOOR CONDITIONS. THE HEAT
INDEX IS EXPECTED TO REACH LEVELS BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES FROM
1 TO 7 PM.

HUETTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
336 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0320 PM    1 W LITTLETON             IL   70 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
07/17/01   SCHUYLER                       ESTIMATED WIND GUST OF 60
                                          TO 70 MPH. PEA SIZE HAIL
                                          ALSO REPORTED. FROM COUNTY
                                          SHERIFF.

FISHER