Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
230 PM CDT THU APR 5 2001

FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND EXTENT OF CONVECTION
ACRS CWA INTO SAT MRNG ALONG WITH TEMPS. NOT TOO MUCH TO ARGUE ABOUT
MODEL-WISE AS BOTH AVN AND ETA SIMILAR IN THEIR OVERALL SOLUTIONS OF
MAJOR SHORTWAVE EJECTING RAPIDLY OUT OF THE SW US ON FRIDAY. EASTERN
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TO KICK OUT SYSTEM FROM BAJA REGION EARLY ON FRIDAY
AND MODELS ARE CORRECT IN THEIR SOLUTION IN PULLING SFC LOW SHARPLY
N-NE OUT OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATING WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM S-CNTRL IA INTO
WEST CNTRL IL. OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM CONVECTION HAS PUSHED S OF PIA AND
MAY ACT TO HOLD FRONT UP A BIT THIS AFTERNOON. ETA AND AVN MODELS
INDICATING BNDRY WL SHIFT NORTH OF CWA TNT AS MAIN ENERGY GETS
KICKED OUT OF SW INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. ONGOING CONVECTION ACRS WRN
IA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ALONG NWD MOVING BNDRY AND WEAK SHORT
WAVE NOTED ON WATER VAPOR LOOP ACRS NW IA. WL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OVR
THE NORTH THIRD OF THE CWA WITH DECREASING POPS SOUTH...FURTHER AWAY
FROM BNDRY. MAV GUID TOO WARM TNT DESPITE THE SOUTH WINDS AND CLD
COVER...SO WL TEND TO FOLLOW THE FWCS OVR MOST OF THE CWA.

AS MAJOR SHORTWAVE PULLS INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY...SFC LOW WL
DEEPEN ACRS COLORADO AND PULL SHARPLY NEWD INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY FRIDAY EVENING. ANY ONGOING CONVECTION ACRS THE CWA FRIDAY
MRNG SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE CWA SO WL TRY TO HAVE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP
FRIDAY AFTN BEFORE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN THREATENS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MRNG AHD OF WEAKENING COLD FRONT. WL KEEP TEMPS WARMEST
ACRS THE SOUTH HALF FRIDAY WITH STILL A BIT OF A CONCERN AS TO WHAT ANY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY DO TO MOVMT OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE BNDRY. SQUALL
LINE WL DEVELOP OUT AHD OF THE COLD FRONT/DRY LINE TMRW AFTN AND STREAK
NEWD INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A
WEAKENING TREND AS MAIN UPPER AND LOW LVL SUPPORT SHIFT AWAY FROM
THE MIDWEST. WL KEEP THE HIGHEST POPS ACRS THE NW WITH LOWER POPS AS YOU
HEAD SOUTHEAST ACRS THE CWA.

LONGWAVE TROF TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACRS THE WRN US WITH ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE FCST TO PUSH OUT INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NOT FORECAST TO PUSH VERY FAR OUT OF THE CWA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS THIS NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY APPRCHS INCRG RAIN CHANCES AGAIN
SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH LNGWV FEATURES NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH
INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A RATHER UNSETTLED WX
PICTURE WL CONTINUE WITH RAIN CHANCES ABOUT EVERY OTHER DAY.

...PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOR COORDINATION ONLY...

SPI BB 059/079 058/075 055 44444
PIA BB 057/077 057/074 054 44654
DEC BB 059/079 058/075 055 44444
CMI BB 057/077 057/074 054 44544
MTO BB 059/080 058/075 055 44432
LWV BB 062/082 062/078 058 44322

.ILX...NONE.

SMITH

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-061100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1108 AM CDT THU APR 5 2001

A WARM FRONT...ORIENTED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH EASTERN MISSOURI
TO SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS MORNING...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTH TODAY. AS IT APPROACHES CENTRAL ILLINOIS...IT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVER2E...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 72...SO SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY AND THIS EVENING IN THIS AREA.

PLAHMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
156 PM CDT THU APR 5 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0126 PM    3 E OAKFORD               IL   .75 INCH HAIL
04/05/01   MENARD                         FROM ESDA.

FISHER