Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
600 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2001

WILL UPDATE TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE...MAINLY FOR COUNTIES IN IMMEDIATE CVG AREA ALONG OHIO
RIVER AND SE IND. THREE HOUR FLOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND AN INCH FOR
MUCH OF THIS AREA AND UPSTREAM VALUES OF ONE AND STP FORM IND AND
IWX WOULD SUGGEST THAT WELL GET THIS. ONLY FLY IN OINTMENT WOULD BE
SPEED OF THE LINE MOVING THROUGH...BUT GROUND IS QUITE SATURATED
ATTM AND ANY RAIN WOULD BE NEAR TOTAL RUNOFF.

...3PM DISCUSSION...
SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POSITIVELY TILTED COLD FRONT OVER
EASTERN IL WITH WARM FRONT ENTERING THE TRI-STATE.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES PLENTY BREAKS IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TDS INTO THE
UPPER 60S.

COMPLICATED FORECAST SO WILL JUST HIT THE HIGHLIGHTS AND HAVE ZONES
READY EARLY.  POSITIVELY TILTED COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED THIS EVENING AND BLAST ACROSS THE FA.  CAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WITH HELICITIES IN EXCESS OF 300
M2/S2.  AS A RESULT BULK RICHARDSON  IS VERY FAVORABLE IN THE
TEENS.  WILL HIT EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT HARD WITH SEVERE WORDING
EXPECT SPC TO ISSUE A BOX OVER WESTERN OHIO LATTER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DEVELOPMENT IN THE WARM SECTOR AND PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
SKIES WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER FA.  WINDS WILL BE
20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME 40 MPH GUSTS THURSDAY.  THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR THEM TO BE STRONGER WHICH COULD PUSH INTO WIND ADVISORY BUT WILL
LET LATTER SHIFTS DEAL WITH IT.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY BUT WILL DRY OUT THE SOUTH
EXCEPT FRIDAY NIGHT.

FWC LOOKS RESPECTABLE FOR THE FIRST 3 PERIODS BUT WENT SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER...CLOSER TO MAV...FOR THE 4TH PERIOD.

.ILN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH INZ073>075-080 KYZ089>093 OHZ077-078.

FRANKS