Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
345 EDT THU JUN 21 2001

WILL SEND OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL OHIO IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463.

...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR INDIANAPOLIS
WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO S CNTRL IL AND ERN MO.
THIS WAS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 12Z MESO ETA RUN.

UPR LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX OVER NRN MO...AS DEPICTED BY
WATER VAPOR...WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SFC LOW PERTURBATION AT INDY.
FAVORABLE UPR LVL DIV COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING/MOIST AIRMASS/MOIST
LOW LVL CONV WILL CONTINUE SHOWERS/TSTMS ACRS THE REGION THRU THE
EVENING HOURS.  COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST AS UPR LVL TROF
IS STILL DIGGING ATTM.  FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WRN CWFA BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT EDT AND 2 AM EDT...AND ERN CWFA BETWEEN 4 AM EDT AND 8 AM
EDT.  WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HEAD OFF TO THE EAST AND/OR
WEAKEN ONCE THE SUN GOES DOWN.  WILL WORD FCST AS DECREASING OR
TAPERING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.

FOR FRIDAY...UPR LVL TROF AXIS STILL DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.  SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS RAINFALL AND COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD TRAP LOWER
CLOUD CEILINGS ACRS THE CWFA.  BY AFTN...LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MIX
OUT...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  SINCE THERE IS A LACK OF LOW LVL
FOCUSING AND/OR UPR DIV...I WOULD BE INCLINED TO LEAVE FCST DRY.
HOWEVER...FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED A SMALL CHANCE OF A
SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTN IF FCST MAXES ARE
REACHED.  THUS...WILL INCLUDE AN AFTN WORDING OF SHOWERS/TSTMS.

ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS FRIDAY AFTN SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET...LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

UPR TROUGH STILL HANGS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VLY ON SATURDAY.
AGAIN...THERE IS A LACK OF LOW LVL FORCING/UPR LVL DIV.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS AGAIN INDICATE THAT A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM COULD POP UP LATE IN THE DAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW UPR TROF CUTTING OFF BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.ILN...NONE.

HICKMAN

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-212030-

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1030 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT.  WITH A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE...A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INDIANA.  THE SQUALL LINE WILL THEN SWEEP
EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS.  HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LADTEST INFORMATION.

HICKMAN