Severe Thunderstorm Warning 61, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
212 PM EDT MON AUG 13 2001

LEE TROUGH AND ELONGATED SHORT WAVE HELPING TO FIRE A GOOD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER CENTRAL NC THIS AFTN. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER INLAND CWA DUE TO OUTFLOWS FROM ACTIVITY FURTHER
WEST. EXPECT US TO SEE MORE ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTN AS ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS WARM AND MOIST AND JUST IN NEED OF SOME TRIGGER.

MODELS POINTING TO BEST MOISTURE...DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITIES TNGT
INTO EARLY TUE AS TROUGH DIGS AND PUSHES SLOWLY EAST AND S/W
ACTIVITY ROUNDS BASE OF TROUGH AND HEADS NORTH OVER AREA. SFC FRONT
TO BE OVER CWA 12Z TUE AND SLOWLY PUSH EAST. MID AND UPPER LVL
MOISTURE PROGGED TO DROP CONSIDERABLY DURING THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME
ON TUE.
TUE NIGHT AND WED ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY DRYING OUT AS FRONT LINGERS
OFFSHORE.

SO...AS FAR AS TEMPS GO...GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE TNGT.
TEMPS TUE HELD DOWN SOME DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUDS/SHOWERS. REMAINDER
OF GUIDANCE FAIRLY REASONABLE. FOR POPS...TNGT VALUES LOOKING AT
70-80% WITH 50-60% ON TUE. AM LEANING TOWARD KEEPING WED POP FREE.

CWF: SW FLOW TO BECOME W LATE TUE AFTN AS FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS
TRANSITION TO NW TUE NIGHT AND FINALLY TO N LATER WED. SPEEDS
GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. AVN SOLUTION TRIES TO STALL FRONT AND
DEVELOP A LOW OFF CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT TUE. IF THIS PROVES TO BE
TRUE...COULD PROVIDE FOR HIGHER WINDS/SEAS OVER NC WATERS. WILL NOT
GO FULL FORCE WITH THIS IDEA NOW AND WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
FCSTID = 30
ILM   75  87  72  87/  80  60  10  10
LBT   73  88  70  89/  80  50  10  10
FLO   73  89  70  89/  80  50  10  10
MYR   74  86  72  86/  80  60  10  10

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

PJN