Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON, NC
1005 AM EDT FRI JUN 01 2001

ZFP... WARM FRONT HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA AS
FRONT IS NEAR A HATTERAS TO JUST SOUTH OF RALEIGH LINE. MORNING
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING -4 TO -5 LI AND CAPES BETWEEN 1500
AND 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA.  ANALYSIS
SHOWING LITTLE CONVERGENCE AT THIS TIME IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
LATEST RUC SHOWING WITH LITTLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ONE CONCERN IS THAT
THE 12Z RUC IS INDICATE CONVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
AROUND 18Z.  WET-BULB ZERO ALONG THE COAST IS RUNNING BETWEEN 12000
AND 12500 FEET SO THREAT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY FROM WIND. WITH ALL
THIS INFO IT APPEARS THAT THAT THE REGION WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE
SHORTWAVE THAT IS MOVING THOROUGH ALABAMA AT THIS TIME. FINALLY THE
MOISTURE TAP FROM THE GULF MAY BE INHIBITED BY THE CONVECTION OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF.  WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ITS AFFECTS AS THIS
STORM EVOLVES.

CWF...OVER THE WATERS WINDS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AT
THE BUOYS.  NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO THE CURRENT  FORECAST EXCEPT
TO INITIALIZE THE FORECAST TO CURRENT TRENDS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
FCSTID = 07
ILM   84  70  86  67 /  60  60  10  10
LBT   84  67  87  64 /  60  60  10  10
FLO   85  68  87  65 /  60  60  10  10
MYR   81  70  83  69 /  60  60  10  10

.ILM...
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

DRH