Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
308 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2001

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPS AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK THE FOCUS BEYOND.  LATEST SFC ANALYSIS HAS LOW OVER SWRN KANSAS
WITH WEAK BOUNDARY INVOF KANS-OKLA BORDER...WORKING NWD. DEWPTS
CREEPING INTO THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND EXPECT MSTR TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD.  WATER VAPOR SHOWING UPPER WAVE MOVING RAPIDLY
OUT OF ERN COLORADO WITH APPARENT GRAVITY WAVES DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT...JUST WEST OF CWA.  ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT
AND WOULD EXPECT AREAL COVERAGE TO INCREASE PRIOR TO 00Z.

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE STATE FAIRLY
QUICKLY AS MODELS INDICATE IT EXITING THE REGION AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO CONCENTRATE ITSELF MORE SOUTH AND EAST
IN AREA OF ENHANCED LIFT TOWARD OVERNIGHT.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIP THEN WITH EMPHASIS BEING PLACED ON S CNTRL/SERN ZONES.  WILL
ALSO KEEP SOME MENTION OF SVR EARLY.  TEMPERATURES TO BE L40S NORTH
TO U40S SOUTH WITH SFC FLOW SWITCHING NWRLY.

BY SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW SHOULD PREDOMINATE WITH CLEARING CONDITIONS.
THINK ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER PRIOR TO SUNRISE OVER SERN
ZONES GIVEN SPEED OF UPPER SYSTEM AND WILL REMOVE AM MENTION THERE.
FOR TEMPS...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW WARMER FWC NUMBERS AS EXPECT SUN
TO OFFSET WEAK CAA.

NEXT SHOT OF COOLER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY SWD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AREA.  MAIN UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK
ACROSS NRN U.S. WITH SFC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  GOOD
BROADSCALE LIFT INDICATED OVER THE AREA WHICH SHOULD MOVE EWD
THROUGH THE DAY.  ERLY SFC FLOW SHOULD HELP INCRS MOISTURE AS WELL.
WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN FOR MONDAY ACRS THE
NORTH...BUT KEEP POPS RATHER LOW ATTM.

IN THE EXTENDED...SFC HIGH TO SETTLE IN BEHIND COLD FRONT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.   TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN RATHER COOL AND WILL TWEAK
DOWNWARD.  UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE INTO FRIDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY SEE
NEXT SHOT OF RAIN.

FCSTID = 16
ICT   49  74  45  64 /  50  10   0  10
HUT   47  72  42  63 /  50  10   0  10
EWK   47  71  43  62 /  50  10   0  10
EQA   48  73  43  63 /  50  10   0  10
WLD   50  74  45  65 /  50  10   0  10
RSL   43  68  38  56 /  30   0   0  20
GBD   44  69  39  57 /  30   0   0  20
SLN   45  70  40  59 /  40   0   0  20
MPR   46  70  39  60 /  40   0   0  20
CFV   52  75  45  65 /  70  10   0  10
CNU   51  75  44  65 /  70  10   0  10
K88   50  74  43  64 /  70  10   0  10

.ICT...NONE.