Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED POPS IN CENTRAL KS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2001

EFFECTS OF UPPER LOW SEEN SPINNING EAST ACROSS SRN NE ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS TO ADDRESS FOR THIS FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS UPPER FEATURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST...KEEPING GOOD
THETA-E/WAA ACROSS SRN/EASTERN KS THROUGH 09Z. LATEST LOOK
AT SFC ANAYLSIS SHOWS BOUNDARY PREVIOUS LOCATED ACROSS NRN OK HAS
WASHED OUT...LEAVING ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN NC ZONES.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCT RANGE AND WILL KEEP SEVERE
WORDING OUT. AS SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH NRN ZONES...MOST OF THE
PRECIP THERE SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT MAIN 7H TROF IS THROUGH
MUCH OF CENTRAL KS BY 12Z SATURDAY...SO WILL REMOVE POPS FROM NRN
ZONES AND CONFINE PCPN CHANCES TO THE MORNING IN ICT ZONES. ETA
1000-850MB THICKNESS FORECAST SUGGEST TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE...BUT PREVIOUS ZONES HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS TREND.

AVN BRINGS 40KT UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KS
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY...BUT WITH BEST LOW LEVEL WAA REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST IN PLACE AND WITH SFC
RIDGE SETTLING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES WILL GO BLO GUIDANCE VALUES
FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT.

WITH SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL KEEP SFC WINDS LIGHT...THUS
LIMITING MIXING. HOWEVER...ETA 1000-850MB THICKNESSES INCREASE FROM
SATURDAY/S VALUES SO WILL BUMP UP HIGHS A CATEGORY FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY/S HIGHS.

EXTENDED...ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT IN DEEPENING EASTERN
USA TROF...WITH UKMO/CANADIAN/MRF ALL SHOWING A LESS AMPLIFIED
PATTERN. AS A RESULT...TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK MIGHT NOT BE A COOL AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO WILL WARM HIGHS A LITTLE FROM MON-WED.
IN ADDITION...WITH UPPER RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA...WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE MAY BRING SCT PCPN THUR AS HINTED
BY CANADIAN AND SHOWN BY THE MRF.

FCSTID = 12/HYSELL
ICT   67  90  63  92 /  30  20   5   0
HUT   66  90  62  92 /  30  20   5   0
EWK   67  90  62  92 /  30  20   5   0
EQA   67  90  63  92 /  30  20   5   0
WLD   68  91  64  93 /  30  20   5   0
RSL   65  90  58  92 /  40  10  10   0
GBD   65  90  59  92 /  40  10  10   0
SLN   67  89  61  90 /  40  20   5   0
MPR   67  89  61  90 /  40  20   5   0
CFV   69  90  64  91 /  40  30  10   0
CNU   69  89  64  90 /  40  30  10   0
K88   69  88  64  89 /  40  30  10   0

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-250200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2001

THE FOLLOWING IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RUSSELL            LINCOLN              SALINE
         BARTON             ELLSWORTH            MCPHERSON
         RICE

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RENO                KINGMAN             HARPER
         HARVEY              SEDGWICK            SUMNER
         BUTLER              COWLEY              MARION
         CHASE

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         GREENWOOD           ELK                 CHAUTAUQUA
         WILSON              WOODSON             MONTGOMERY
         ALLEN               NEOSHO              LABETTE

THE SYNOPSIS:

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THERE ARE THREE MAIN AREAS WHERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE FIRST ONE IS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WHERE A WEAK UPPER SYSTEM IS PASSING BY.  THE SECOND ONE IS OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS FROM RUSSELL TO SALINE...ALONG THE EDGE OF A LARGE
MASS OF PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS...AND THE THIRD ONE IS OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MOST
UNSTABLE.

A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 4 PM OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
THERE.  ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA...IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE KANSAS BORDER...AS THE
FLOW ALOFT VEERS TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING.

THE AREA OF CONCERN FROM JUST SOUTH OF RUSSELL TO SALINA...MAY STAND
THE BEST CHANCE FOR INITIATING STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND STRONGER WIND SHEAR...COME TOGETHER BEST
TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HUTCHINSON
TO EL DORADO. WEAK CONVERGENCE OF AIR ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD
SHIELD MAY ALLOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA
AFTER 5 PM.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST FROM 5 PM THROUGH 10
PM THIS EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREAT IS FOR HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN
DIAMETER...AND WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.  STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER
INFORMATION.

/WOLF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA, KANSAS
803 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0755 PM    2 E LYONS                 KS   1.50 INCH HAIL
08/24/01   RICE                           REPORTED BY A STORM CHASER

PHIL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA, KANSAS
834 PM CDT FRI AUG 24 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0729 PM    1 NE MITCHELL             KS   .75 INCH HAIL
08/24/01   RICE                           REPORTED BY AGTAP SPOTTER

HYSELL