Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
342 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2001

FCST CONCERN...
CNVTV TRENDS THRU 48HRS...

SATL WV IMAGERY SHOWD IMPRESSIVE UPR LOW SPINNING ACRS NERN CO
AT EARLY AFTN. THE EVOLUTION AND MOVMT OF THIS FEATURE WL BE KEY
TO THE FCST TNGT THRU SAT MRNG. ALTHO THE AVN SUFFERS FM CNVTV
FEEDBACK AND IS PERHAPS TOO DEEP WITH SYS...BELIEVE THE LATEST
SATL/PROFILER AND SFC OBS ARE TENDING TO SUPPORT LWR LVL CYCLONE
DVLPMT ACRS WRN KS THIS AFTN. THEREFORE...WL LEAN TWD THE AVN SOLN
IN DVLPG A MORE CLOSED TROPOSPHERIC SYS AS IT MOVS ACRS KS THRU FRI.
AS THE LWR LVL FLO BACKS SOME TWD 00Z THE CNVGNC WL INCRS ACRS CNTRL
KS THIS EVE. ALTHO THE LO LVL CNVGNC IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE INTO
TNGT...THE ASSOCD UPR SUPPORT/LIFT SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO
SUSTAIN A CNVTV COMPLEX ACRS PTNS OF THE CWA...MAINLY THE N HALF.

BEST CHCS FOR CNVTN ON FRI SHOULD RESIDE ACRS THE ERN PTN OF THE
CWA...MAINLY E OF THE TURNPIKE AS LOW SLIDES ACRS ERN KS. HOWEVER
WITH RELATIVE COOL AIR ALOFT/STEEPER LAPSE RATES...RENEWED DIURNAL
CNVTN IS POSBL EVEN ACRS CNTRL KS DURG THE LATE AFTN/EVE.

ON SAT...THE SRN EXTENSION OF A NRN STREAM TROF WL TAIL A WK VORT
LOBE ACRS THE AREA THAT THE MODELS TRY TO PHASE WITH THE EXITING
LOW ACRS IA/MO. IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE ENUF LO LVL MSTR TO RESULT
IN AT LEAST ISOLD/WDLY SCT DIURNAL CNVTN ACRS PTNS OF THE CWA.
SO WL MAINTAIN SLGT CHC MOST AREAS ON SAT.

EXTENDED FCST...WL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST THRUT FCST PD WITH A GRADUL
WARMING TREND BY WED/THU. THE ECMWF/MRF CONT TO SHOW A GENL TROF
ACRS THE GRTLKS/OH VLY WITH RDG IN THE W. THIS WL GIVE A NWLY
FLO REGIME TO KS. WK S/WVS IN THE FLO WL NOT HAVE MUCH MSTR TO
WORK WITH DURG THIS TIME...WITH CHCS OF CNVTN STAYING PRIMARILY
ACRS THE HIGH PLAINS.

FCSTID = 13/DARMOFAL
ICT   70  90  70  91 /  60  50  40  20
HUT   69  89  69  90 /  60  50  40  20
EWK   70  89  70  90 /  60  50  40  20
EQA   70  89  69  90 /  60  60  40  20
WLD   70  91  70  92 /  60  60  50  20
RSL   67  88  66  88 /  70  40  20  20
GBD   68  88  67  88 /  70  40  20  20
SLN   70  88  69  89 /  70  50  30  20
MPR   70  88  69  89 /  70  50  30  20
CFV   70  91  70  91 /  60  60  50  20
CNU   70  89  70  89 /  60  60  50  20
K88   70  88  69  88 /  60  60  50  20

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-232200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1112 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2001

THE FOLLOWING IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RUSSELL            LINCOLN              SALINE
         BARTON             ELLSWORTH            MCPHERSON
         RICE

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RENO                KINGMAN             HARPER
         HARVEY              SEDGWICK            SUMNER
         BUTLER              COWLEY              MARION
         CHASE

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         GREENWOOD           ELK                 CHAUTAUQUA
         WILSON              WOODSON             MONTGOMERY
         ALLEN               NEOSHO              LABETTE

THE SYNOPSIS:

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TODAY. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE...OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AND TEMPERATURE
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL LARGER THAT DIMES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

/NRR

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-232200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2001

THE FOLLOWING IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RUSSELL            LINCOLN              SALINE
         BARTON             ELLSWORTH            MCPHERSON
         RICE

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RENO                KINGMAN             HARPER
         HARVEY              SEDGWICK            SUMNER
         BUTLER              COWLEY              MARION
         CHASE

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         GREENWOOD           ELK                 CHAUTAUQUA
         WILSON              WOODSON             MONTGOMERY
         ALLEN               NEOSHO              LABETTE

THE SYNOPSIS:

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...ACROSS CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS REMAINS MOIST AND
UNSTABLE.  PARTIAL SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD CAUSE THE
ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME EVEN MORE UNSTABLE.  NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION...AS A RESULT OF THUNDERSTORMS LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING.  LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.  IF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING ONE TO TWO INCH DIAMETER
HAIL...AND 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS.  IN ADDITION...A BAND OF STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...COMBINED WITH SURFACE WINDS MORE
EASTERLY RATHER THAN SOUTHERLY...WILL ENHANCE THE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR.  THIS IS PRIMARILY ANTICIPATED NORTH OF A WICHITA TO CHANUTE
LINE...AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  WITHIN THIS REGION...SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE TIME WINDOW
WHEN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IS FROM ABOUT 3 PM
THROUGH 9 PM.

IF CHANGING CONDITIONS CAUSE OUR EXPECTATIONS TO CHANGE...AN UPDATED
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE
LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION.

/WOLF