Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2001

...WILL NOT INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING IN FORECAST WITH LAST FEW HOURS
OF SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING LIMITED AREA/S RECOVERING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS WITH MOST OF AREA STRUGGLING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THERE IS A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF ICT
BUT AGAIN AREAL COVERAGE IS LIMITED. FOLLOWING WITH THIS FEEL THAT
GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND GREATER RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINS MAY REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA...THEREFORE THERE WILL BE NO
FLOODING HEADLINES...ALL IN ALL STILL EXPECT THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...AS UPPER LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM.

FCST FOCUS ON UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST AND
THE IMPACT THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE ON CONVECTION COVERAGE LATE TODAY
INTO TONIGHT.  SPECIFIC FOCUS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL AND FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

WILL LEAN TOWARD AN ETA DEPICTION OF EXPECTED PROCESSES HOWEVER ALL
MODELS ARE TOO WEAK WITH THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...AND THUS ARE
WEAKER WITH WIND FIELDS.

MORNING UPPER AIR SHOWED AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 250MB
UPPER JET STREAK WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NE KS. AT
700MB...THEATAE RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH TEMPS OF +6C AT TOP TO +8C AT DDC. 20-30KT WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES PER PROFILER DATA.  AT 850MB...FRONT REMAINS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL KS WITH AREA PROFILERS STILL SHOWING 20-25KT OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO AND ACROSS THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS RANGE IN THE +11
TO +13C RANGE AT THE MOMENT. AT THE SFC...MORNING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OK...WITH
COLD MESOHIGH PRESSURE AND CLOUDS KEEPING SE KS STABILIZED. HOWEVER
CLEARING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS IS ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RECOVER SOMEWHAT. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DIGGING UPPER SYSTEM HAVE ALLOWED THE FRONT TO MIX BACK NORTH TO A
GREAT BEND TO MARION LINE WITH MID TO UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WIDESPREAD.

FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...EXPECT LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO INCREASE. AFTERNOON HEATING WITH
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 80 DEGREES SHOULD ALLOW
INSTABILITY TO RISE INTO THE 1000 TO 1500J/KG RANGE. MODELS FCST A
IMPRESSIVE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE AFTER 6PM HOWEVER THE SPEEDS IN
THE LOWEST 1-3KM ARE WEAKER THAN IDEAL SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER
AS MENTIONED GIVEN DYNAMIC NATURE OF THE PROCESSES EXPECTED...THE
WIND FIELDS MAY BE UNDER-FORECAST. SO...IF INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF DODGE CITY/S CWA
OR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...PROPAGATION WOULD BE EAST OR SOUTHEAST
AT AROUND 20-25 MPH WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING.

THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND FCST LOW LEVEL JET MAY INDEED TAKE THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION SOUTH INTO OK AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT FOR NOW WILL
NOT ATTEMPT TO ADD TIME QUALIFIERS OVERNIGHT.

BY TOMORROW...UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY
AFTERNOON...WITH NORTH WINDS AND SLOW DRYING OF ALL LAYERS. WILL GO
WITH SLIGHT CHCS FOR PRECIP SE OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER THAN
NORMAL WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 75 TO 80 RANGE.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...LOOKS DRY AND NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL FOR TEMPS
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WARMER BUT DRY CONDS TO FOLLOW INTO NEXT
WEEK....NO CHANGES PLANNED.

FCSTID = 11/CO
ICT   63  79  55  81 /  80  10  10  10
HUT   62  79  55  81 /  80  10  10  10
EWK   62  79  55  81 /  80  10  10  10
EQA   62  77  55  81 /  80  10  10  10
WLD   64  78  55  81 /  80  10  10  10
RSL   56  78  54  81 /  40  10  10  10
GBD   59  79  54  83 /  50  10  10  10
SLN   59  79  54  82 /  50  10  10  10
MPR   59  79  54  82 /  60  10  10  10
CFV   64  77  55  80 /  50  20  10  10
CNU   62  76  55  80 /  50  20  10  10
K88   62  76  55  80 /  50  20  10  10

.ICT...NONE.