Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2001

FCST FOCUS ON SUBTLE SFC FEATURES ALONG WITH WEAK WAVES ALOFT FOR
PRECIP CHCS IN THE SHORT TERM...THEN TEMPS AND PRECIP CHCS BEYOND.

WILL USE A BLEND OF THE AVN/ETA FOR PROCESS DEPICTIONS.

EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR FEATURED A WEAK WAVE ACROSS WYOMING WITH A
60KT JET STREAK. 500MB RIDGE AXIS SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH WARM -7 TO -9C TEMPS IN PLACE TODAY. 700MB HIGH CENTER
IS ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW AND WEAK
ADVECTION. AT 850MB...VERY WEAK N TO NE FLOW EXISTS WITH WEAK CAA
OR NEUTRAL ADVECTION. HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST FROM
850 DOWN TO THE SFC...WITH LATEST SFC MAP SHOWING A DIFFUSE SFC
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM NE TO SW KS. EARLY MORNING FOG HAS
BECOME A THICK STRATUS DECK TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE.

FIRST FOCUS IS ON PRECIP CHCS THIS EVENING...AND TONIGHT. STORMS
COULD RESULT FROM TWO DISTINCT FORCES...ONE IS SCATTERED EVENING
ACTIVITY NEAR THE SOUTH OF THE DIFFUSE SFC BOUNDARY IN THE
MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING SO WILL WORD 30 POPS FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL. THE OTHER POSSIBILITY ARISES FROM THE FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AND JET STREAK ENERGY WHICH WILL RACE ACROSS NEBRASKA
TONIGHT. UPSLOPE FLOW AND UPPER DIV WOULD DRIVE THE STORMS WITH THE
MEAN FLOW AND POSITION OF THE 850MB THETAE RIDGE TO SUPPORT A DIVE
TO THE SSE. AT THIS POINT WILL FEEL THAT A GENERIC 30 POP IS
APPROPRIATE FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH LESSER CHCS
ACROSS THE SLN TO COTTONWOOD FALLS LINE. FOR THE SE MAY SIMPLY ADD
SLIGHT CHCS FOR EVENING STORMS AND KEEP THE OVERNIGHT DRY. GOING
MINS LOOK FINE. LOOK FOR FOG AS WELL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOTS OF
MOISTURE.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER WAVE WILL RIDE ALONG THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE
MIDWEST HOWEVER THE MOISTURE AXIS AND INSTABILITY AXIS WILL BEGIN TO
REORGANIZE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AWAY FROM CENTRAL/SE KS AND MORE
TOWARD WESTERN NEB AS THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. OVERALL...FEEL THAT FRIDAY MAY BE ONE OF THOSE PTSUNNY DAYS
WITH PLENTY OF HUMIDITY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 80 TO 85 RANGE
MOST AREAS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MORE PATCHY FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SE
COUNTIES. MINS OF 60 TO 65 WILL DO. SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CAUGHT
IN SOMEWHAT OF A THERMAL TROUGH FROM 700MB TO THE SFC SO DO NOT WANT
TO WARM DAYTIME TEMPS TOO HIGH...FOR NOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMP IN THE
85 TO 90 RANGE.  CURRENT FCST HAS PRECIP CHCS MENTIONED FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ONLY FORCING WOULD HAVE TO COME FROM
700MB WAA SO WILL GO AHEAD AND LET THIS RIDE FOR NOW BUT OVERALL
EXPECT A DRY AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. NEXT
TROUGH SHOULD ARRIVE TUES/WEDS AND CURRENT FCST HAS THIS HANDLED
WELL.

FCSTID = 11/CO
ICT   62  84  63  87 /  30  10   0   0
HUT   62  84  63  87 /  30  10   0   0
EWK   62  84  63  86 /  30  10   0   0
EQA   62  82  63  85 /  30  10   0   0
WLD   62  82  63  86 /  30  10   0   0
RSL   63  80  64  88 /  30  10   0   0
GBD   62  80  63  88 /  30  10   0   0
SLN   63  82  63  87 /  10  10   0   0
MPR   63  82  63  86 /  10  10   0   0
CFV   62  82  63  85 /  20  10   0   0
CNU   62  82  63  85 /  20  10   0   0
K88   62  82  63  84 /  20  10   0   0

.ICT...NONE.