Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
225 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2001

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS CONVECTION INTO MONDAY.
PREFER THE ETA/AVN MODELS FOR THIS FCST BASED ON MODEL TRENDS FOR A
SLOWER/STRONGER UPPER LOW DEVELOPING...AND MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN RGN/NRN ROCKIES. ALSO, LIKE THE FURTHER S FRONTAL
PLACEMENT AND SFC LOW COMPARED TO THE NGM.

TODAY, ANTICIPATING ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO
CNTRL/SERN KS EARLY THIS AM. THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
THETA-E ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL JET...NORTH OF WARM
FRONT. MAY NEED TO GO WITH AREAL COVERAGE WORDING DEPENDING ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS PRIOR TO ZONE ISSUANCE. HIEST POPS ERN PORTIONS
OF AREA ON EDGE OF WARMER MID LVL AIR/CAP. ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD
LAST THRU MIDDAY OR INTO EARLY PM IN SERN KS WITH PERSISTENT WAA.
CHANCE FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF SFC-BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WL
DEPEND ON CAP STRENGTH/AMOUNT OF LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. MODELS HINT AT
BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVER CNTRL/S-CNTRL KS LATE TODAY, AND WITH HIGHS IN
MID 70S TO AROUND 80, CAP SHOULD BE WEAK-MODERATE. LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE INTO FRONTAL ZONE...AND NEAR TRIPLE PT IN NWRN OK...MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO BREAK CAP. SUPERCELLS WOULD BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
IF THIS HAPPENS WITH VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND 50 KT 0-6KM SHEAR
VECTORS.

TONIGHT, WL KEEP A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS GOING, WITH MCS POSSIBLY MOVING
SEWD OUT OF HI PLAINS ACROSS THE FCST AREA. BEST CHC FOR SEVERE
WOULD PROBABLY BE IN CNTRL SECTIONS THIS EVENING, AS ACTIVITY COULD
REMAIN SFC-BASED FOR SVRL HOURS AFTER DARK. BUMPED MINS UP SVRL
DEGREES IN SRN AREAS BASED ON DWPTS REMAINING WELL INTO 60S AND SE
WINDS HOLDING UP IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SFC CYCLONE.
WARM FRONT LIFTS UP INTO S-CNTRL/SERN KS PER ETA/AVN.

MONDAY, INITIAL SFC WAVE LIFTS NEWD FROM NEAR MEDICINE LODGE AROUND
12Z TO NERN KS BY 00Z, WITH THE FRONT STALLED FROM S-CNTRL INTO NERN
KS. A TRIPLE PT AREA COULD EXIST ACROSS NWRN OK TO SERVE AS A FOCUS,
IN ADDITION TO CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN KS. VERY HIGH CAPES,
DRY MID LVL AIR AND SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SVR CONVECTION ONCEJ AGAIN. WL NEED TO RAISE HIGHS INTO THE 80S SE OF
THE FRONTAL BNDRY.

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION WITH CCF NUMBERS/FINAL DISCUSSION AROUND 330 AM.

.ICT...NONE.