Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Wichita, KS

TTAA00 KICT DDHHMM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
214 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2001

NOT TOO MUCH TO ADD TO EARLIER AFD THAT WAS ISSUED AT 1035 AM.  WITH
WEAK BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND A
COLD FRONT STILL LAGGING TO THE NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA...I EXPECT TRW
TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON WITH INITIAL HEATING AND THEN PROGRESS ONTO
THE SOUTH WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  THE BEST INSTABILITY LOOKS TO
RESIDE IN THE SLN AREA WITH CAPES RUNNING AROUND 25 TO 2700.  RIGHT
NOW THE PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE HAIL AND WINDS...HOWEVER...IF THE
SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK...THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ENSUE.

WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND MAKE SATURDAY A PLEASANT DAY.  ANOTHER
LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO RIDE SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
AND MAY PRODUCE AN MCS WHICH LOOKS TO MOVE ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA
BORDER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  LATER ON SUNDAY...IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA TO THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER BY 6 PM.  WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW SOUTH OF
THE BORDER...I ANTICIPATE A DECENT OVERRUNNING EVENT TO PREVAIL.
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.  THIS SHOULD LAST
INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER ROLLS IN.

THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS GOOD WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND.

CHANCE

FCSTID = 1
ICT   55  78  55  75 /  40  10  20  50
HUT   55  77  55  75 /  40  10  20  50
EWK   55  77  55  75 /  40  10  20  50
EQA   55  78  55  75 /  40  10  20  50
WLD   55  79  55  75 /  40  10  20  50
RSL   50  76  54  75 /  30  10  50  50
GBD   50  76  54  75 /  30  10  50  50
SLN   50  76  54  75 /  30  10  50  50
MPR   50  76  54  75 /  30  10  50  50
CFV   53  72  54  75 /  50  30  20  50
CNU   53  71  54  75 /  50  30  20  50
K88   53  70  54  75 /  h50  30  20  50

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ049-051-012330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
601 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2001

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR SKYWARN
SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED AT 146.82 AND 145.13
MHZ.

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