Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
345 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001

SYNOPSIS:
UPSTAIRS TROF CROSSING NE NM EJECTING 500-MB VORT LOBE NE TOWARD SW
KS INDUCING NEW CONVECTION THIS AREA. RICH GULF MSTR AWAITS FM TX
ACRS OK & MOST OF KS. AS UPSTAIRS TROF APPROACHES, QSTNRY FRONT CUR-
VING FM W TX ACRS WRN RED RVR (NEAR KSPS) TO KOKC TO KTXK WL SURGE N
AS WARM FRONT TNGT. ALL ADD TO STORMY PER-IOD TNGT THRU WED NGT ACRS
MOST OF KS WITH +RA LIKELY (ESPECIALLY TNGT). BOTH 1 & 3-HR FFGS ARE
FAIRLY HIGH (GENERALLY 2-2.5 IN) SO NO FLASH FLOOD WATCH REQUIRED AT
THIS POINT. AIRMASS WORKED OVER DOUBLE-TIME, BUT WITH WARM MOIST AD-
VECTION CONTG THRU WED NGT, LIMITED DIURNAL TEMP RANGE RESULTS THIS
PERIOD. AS UPSTAIRS TROF CROSSES MIDWEST SFC-850MB COUNTERPARTS
SWEEP ACRS KS RESULTING IN WSHFT TO NW-N ACRS CNTRL KS MID-MRNG WED
& ACRS SC & SE KS DURING EARLY AFTN & EVENING RESPECTIVELY. TSRA TO
END ACRS CNTRL WED EVENING (ERN 1/2 CNTRL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT). TSRA
TO CONT ACRS SC & SE KS THROUGH VERY EARLY THU MRNG.

TNGT:
CAT POPS WARRANTED ALL AREAS (80%) WITH +RA DESCRIPTOR USED. WITH
GREATEST INSTABILITY FM SW KS & TX/OK PANHANDLES, EXPECTD GREATEST
THREAT FOR SVR TO OCCUR SW-S OF NEIGHBORHOOD. HWVR, SPC THINKING IS
THAT CONVECTION FIRING OVER SW KS WL VENTURE INTO WRN CORRIDOR SO WL
HAVE TO INCLUDE POSSIBLY SVR DESCRIPTOR FOR MOST OF CNTRL KS. MINS
IN 60-65F RANGE LOOK KOSHER WITH NW SXN ON COOLER END OF SPECTRUM.

WED:
CAT POPS CONTD ALL AREAS (80%) WITH +RA USED SC & SE. SOAKED AIRMASS
DICTATES FOLLOWING COOLER MAV MAXES ALL AREAS (ARND 70F WITH SE ON
WARMER END OF THIS NARROW SPECTRUM).

WED NGT:
CRNT FCST POP GRADIENT LOOKS GREAT (20-30% NW WHERE EARLY EVENING
DESCRIPTOR USED, TO 70-80% SC & SE). OVERSPREADING OF NW-N COMP DIC-
TATES BIAS TOWARD COOLER MAV SOLUTION ALL AREAS (ARND 50F NW TO MID
50S SE).

THU:
MOSUNNY WX SLATED CNTRL & SC AS ABOVE-MENTIONED UPSTAIRS TROF APPROA-
CHES APPALACHIANS WITH RIDGE COUNTERPART FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE ACRS
ROCKIES. WRAP-ARND SC LINGERING OVER SE KS WARRANTS BECMG MOSUNNY/
DECREASING CLOUDINESS DESCRIPTOR SE. MAXES NO DOUBT DICTATED BY SC
COVERAGE WITH MAXES FLIRTING WITH 80F ALONG WRN CORRIDOR WHILE SE KS
LIMITED TO NEAR 75F.

THU NGT:
CLEAR WX SLATED ALL AREAS AS MID-UPR RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT. W/
LGT & VRBL WIND & AMPLE RESIDUAL MSTR MAY SEE BR DEVELOPMENT IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS (LIKE KHUT). FAN/MAV MINS LOOK HARD TO BEAT (50-55F).

FRI-MON:
WITH STNRY FRONT SURGING NE AS WARM FRONT ON SAT & AMPLE SFC-850MB
MSTR SURGING N ACRS W TX & BOTH PANHANDLES ON INTO CNTRL KS, GENERIC
CHC POPS CONTD SAT & SUN SC & CNTRL W/ SE LIMITED TO SUN.
ES

FCSTID = 4
ICT   65  71  53  78 /  80  80  60   0
HUT   63  71  50  78 /  80  80  60   0
EWK   64  71  53  78 /  80  80  60   0
EQA   64  71  53  78 /  80  80  60   0
WLD   66  71  54  78 /  80  80  60   0
RSL   60  69  50  79 /  80  80  30   0
GBD   61  69  51  79 /  80  80  30   0
SLN   63  70  52  78 /  80  80  40   0
MPR   63  70  52  78 /  80  80  40   0
CFV   65  72  56  75 /  80  80  70   0
CNU   65  72  55  75 /  80  80  70   0
K88   65  72  55  75 /  80  80  70   0

.ICT...NONE.

*MADE MINOR CHANGES TO TNGTS MINS.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-300400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
515 PM CDT TUE MAY 29 2001

A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN:

CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RUSSELL            LINCOLN              SALINE
         BARTON             ELLSWORTH            MCPHERSON
         RICE

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
         RENO                KINGMAN             HARPER
         HARVEY              SEDGWICK            SUMNER
         BUTLER              COWLEY              MARION
         CHASE

SOUTHEAST KANSAS...
         GREENWOOD           ELK                 CHAUTAUQUA
         WILSON              WOODSON             MONTGOMERY
         ALLEN               NEOSHO              LABETTE

THE SYNOPSIS:

ABUNDANT MOISTURE COVERS ALL OF THE AREA.  RAIN EARLIER TODAY
SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER A WEAK WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS TO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.  LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING.  THE COMBINATION OF
WIND PROFILES AND INSTABILITY...ARE CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE MOST LIKELY WEST OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO
COFFEYVILLE.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM LINCOLN TO ARKANSAS CITY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
HUTCHINSON TO WELLINGTON.

SPOTTERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WEST
OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO COFFEYVILLE.

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 320 IS NOW IN EFFECT WEST OF A LINE FROM
LINCOLN TO WELLINGTON UNTIL 11 PM.  THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACED THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 318 FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

/HOWERTON