Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Hanford, CA

INTERIOR CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
215 PM PDT TUE MAY 22 2001

AS EXPECTED ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN PROGRESS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LOCATIONS ALL POISED TO REACH OVER 100 DEGREES.
FRESNO SHOULD TIE THE MAY RECORD FOR MOST 100 DEGREE DAYS AT 5. OVER
THE FOOTHILLS...SIERRA AND THE KERN DESERTS...TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
RUNNING WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  OVER THE SIERRA AND KERN MOUNTAINS...
CUMULUS HAVE POPPED UP AND THE FIRST THUNDER HAS POPPED OVER THE
SEQUOIA NATIONAL PARK. THESE LOCATIONS TO SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS I DON'T EXPECT MUCH
COOLING AT ALL AS THE SHORT RANGE MODELS VERY SLOWLY SHIFT THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF MONTEREY TO A POSITION NEAR LAS
VEGAS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY ON
WEDNESDAY AND FALL JUST SLIGHTLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
INSTABILITY FORECASTS SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IN THE SIERRA TO
REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY IT LOOKS LIKE THE THREAT WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST OF THE CREST AND WILL NOT INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ON FRIDAY THE AVN AND OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS KEEP THE HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEVADA AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DON'T FALL MUCH AT ALL. CLOSED UPPER LOW IS AGAIN PROGGED
TO MOVE FROM NEAR 130W TO A POSITION ABOUT 400 WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION
WHILE LOWERING HEIGHTS 20 TO 30 METERS. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WITH FURTHER HEIGHT FALLS. OF COURSE THIS IS ALL BASED ON THE
MODEL FORECAST BEING CORRECT AND WITH THE DOWNSTREAM MAJOR LOW OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY REMAINING IN PLACE...THUS EVEN FURTHER SLOWING OF THE
SHIFT FROM RIDGE TO LOW MAY OCCUR. WILL COOL THINGS SLIGHTLY ON
FRIDAY AND CONTINUE TO COOL THINGS OFF OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY gWEEKEND.
WITH CURRENT PROGGED POSITIONING OF THE LOW...EXPECT ENOUGH SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS.

.HNX...NONE.
DUDLEY