Tornado Warning 23, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
235 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2001

INTERESTING FCST NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. STG UPR LVL TROF WILL SWING
THROUGH THE ERN PART OF TX LATE TDA AND THIS EVENING. AM NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSED THE THE ENVIRONMENT IT HAS TO WORK WITH...IF THE ETA MODEL
SOUNDINGS TURN OUT TO BE CORRECT. HELICITIES HOLD BLO 100...AND
CAPES MAX OUT THIS MORNING AROUND 1500. JET PSN HAS MOST OF THE AREA
IN A RR QUAD REGION THIS MORNING...THEN POSITIONS ITSELF OVERHEAD
DRG THE AFTN...LEAVING ONLY THE SWRN ZONES IN THE FAVORED AREA.
GIVEN DAY ONE OTLK AND THE FACT THAT SVR IS ALREADY MENTIONED IN
ZFP...WILL LEAVE IT IN. THINK THE EVENT UPCOMING ON FRI NGT WILL BE
MORE IMPRESSIVE HOWEVER. CAPES ARE HIGHER...WET BULB ZEROES ARE
LOWER...AND THE UPR LVL DYNAMICS ARE STRONGER. LATEST SPC DAY TWO
OTLK AGREES...AND HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A MDT RISK.

AT THE SFC...LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER NRN AND CTRL ZONES TDA
THEN WASH OUT. MOISTURE LVLS ARE FAIRLY HIGH...WITH FCST PW VALUES
CLOSE TO 2 INCHES IN SPOTS TDA. MOS AND FAN SPLASHING 80+ POPS OVER
A LARGE PTN OF THE REGION. WILL GO CAT POPS ALL BUT SW. MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS TAPER OFF TNGT INTO FRI...THEN SECOND ROUND WILL AFFECT
AREA FRI NGT. MOS POPS 4TH PERIOD DONT PICK UP ON THIS. WILL GO
LKLY NUMBERS 4TH PERIOD...EXCEPT 50 SW. DRYING BEHIND SECOND FNT
MOVES IN QUICKLY BY SAT. MIGHT GO AHD AND YANK POPS FOR SAT N PTNS.
AVN HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING NRN HALF OF OUR AREA DRY BY 12Z
SAT...AND NEW 60 HR ETA AGREES. FCST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
THROUGH MIDWEEK LOOKS QUITE NICE AFT FROPA.

BOTH CLL AND IAH GOT TO 88 DEGS YESTERDAY. THINK ENOUGH SUN MIGHT
PEEK THROUGH NW TO ALLOW TEMPS TO EXCEED MOS FCST TDA. OTRW NUMBERS
LOOK OK.

MARINE SIDE RELATIVELY BENIGN UNTIL 2ND FROPA. NO FLAGS.

.HGX...NONE.

46/41/48

PRELIMS...
CLL TE 083/066 088/060 078 833
IAH TE 084/068 087/065 080 833
GLS TE 083/075 083/072 081 843 (SW POPS 533)

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-112200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
440 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2001

...ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY...

...MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT...

A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL
RATES OF AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR...WITH TOTALS OF 4 OR 5 INCHES
POSSIBLE. BE ALERT FOR HIGH STANDING WATER IN AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ONE OR TWO OF THE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY BE ON TAP FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL BECOME STRONGER AND TURN MORE WESTERLY WITH INCREASING
ALTITUDE. THIS...COMBINED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY...WILL CAUSE SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO ROTATE...POSSIBLY PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. A LOWERING FREEZING LEVEL IN THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO LEAD TO A GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING LARGE HAILSTONES. CONSIDER MAKING PREPARATIONS TODAY AND
FRIDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT. MAKE SURE TO HAVE BATTERY
OPERATED APPLIANCES AND FLASHLIGHTS READY IN CASE POWER IS
INTERRUPTED. AND REMEMBER...THE BEST PLACE TO BE IF YOU ARE IN THE
PATH OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO IS INSIDE A REINFORCED
STRUCTURE AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY AND ON FRIDAY
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

END/46