Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
217 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2001

WEAK ZONAL FLOW WAS EVIDENCED ACROSS TEXAS TODAY...WITH THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE OUTER EDGE OF THE
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THE MCS OVER N TX EARLIER TODAY HAS
DIMINISHED...BUT ANOTHER ONE WAS FORMING OVER S TX AND FAR WESTERN SE
TX.  FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE POPS WITH
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN ITEM BEYOND SUNDAY...THEN POPS ONCE AGAIN
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.

THE AVN AND ETA BOTH INDICATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO EXTEND INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  GIVEN THE FACT THE WEAK WARM FRONT SHOULD BE
WELL NORTH OF SE TX SUNDAY...BELIEVE THE CHANCES WILL BE LESS SUNDAY
THAN WERE TODAY.  WILL STILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
CENTRAL AND NORTH.  THE DIMINISHING MOISTURE SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE AND SOME LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  THE SEVERE THREAT
LOOKS TO BE SLIGHT AND MAINLY EARLY THIS EVENING.  BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT THE 700 MB CAP...BUT THEN ERODES WEDNESDAY AS THE SOUTHERN 500
MB RIDGE THEN RETREATS AND ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  FOR ANYONE LOOKING EAST...THE WESTERLIES ARE STILL IN PLACE
WITH A 500 MB TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE STATE.  THUS...THE ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE OVER THE YUCATAN WILL STAY WELL EAST OF THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM BACK INTO THE 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS
SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK.  WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS IN THIS REGARD.  MAY TWEAK THE MINS DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO AT
LEAST THE FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS.

OVER THE MARINE AREAS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO INCREASE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WINDS THEN COULD REACH CAUTION CRITERIA.
FOR NOW NO FLAGS ARE NEEDED.

.HGX...NONE.

PL-45
43

PRELIMS...
CLL BU 068/090 071/092 071 221
IAH BU 069/091 071/091 072 211
GLS BU 074/085 076/086 076 21-

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-262300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1025 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2001

...SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

LATE THIS MORNING A WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM
NEAR ANAHUAC TO INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT TO COLLEGE STATION.  IN
ADDITION...A DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER NORTH TEXAS WAS
PUSHING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE CROCKETT AND CONROE AREAS.  AS
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WARM FRONT INTERACT IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS
IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK THAT SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE.

THE PRIMARY THREAT TIME IS FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...BASICALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR.  HOWEVER...THE MAIN THREAT AREA
IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CORRIGAN TO HUNTSVILLE TO CALDWELL.
THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.  LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWER AND MID ATMOSPHERE
WILL MEAN THAT THE MOVEMENT OF ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE
SLOW AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY RESULT.  NEAR THE COAST THE
DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF WATER SPOUTS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS...UPDATES...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.