Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
235 PM CDT MON APR 23 2001

REMNANTS OF THE PRIOR MCS STRUNG OUT FROM NEAR CROCKETT TO 11R TO
SAT...COLD FRONT ALONG A TYR-CRS-JCT LINE. UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS
LIFTING AWAY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST. UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A BULLSEYE OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SPLATTERED
OVER THE FA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO MERGE WITH
THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THE LIFT/DAYTIME
HEATING AND LL CONVERGENCE SHOULD OVERCOME THE CAP TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP. AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH SEEM WELL WITHIN REACH AND
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES. MAY STILL GET A FEW
ISOLATED HAIL REPORTS SO WILL MENTION SEVERE IN COASTAL AND CENTRAL
TIER OF ZFP THROUGH EARLY EVENING. FRONT SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST
TONIGHT BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM. OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD WEAKEN WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ONSHORE FLOW BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING. DEWPOINTS SHOULD
BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO 40S FOR A FEW DAYS...NICE DRY MILD
WX WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US
WILL MOVE EAST AND WESTERN US RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO NM/CO/KS/W-TX.
DOWNSTREAM FROM THE RIDGE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL BE THE
RULE THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COULD DROP A LOW DOWN
INTO AR AND THEN RETROGRADES WEST UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE. WILL NOT PUT A
GREAT DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO FOR LATE APRIL...JUNE MAYBE.

TEMPS...WONT STRAY FAR FROM MOS--ROUGHLY PUT (AVN+NGM)/2.

WILL SHOW SCEC OR SCA IN THE 20-60 NM OFFSHORE AREAS BASED ON SEAS.
WINDS OFFSHORE MAY WILL PROBABLY SCA POSTFRONTAL ON TUESDAY AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND CAA PEAKS.

45/40/39

.HGX...SCEC/SCA COASTAL WATERS 20-60NM (WAITING TIL PRESS TIME)

PRELIMS...
CLL BU 055/075 049/078 049 610
IAH BU 057/077 050/077 049 610
GLS EB 064/075 060/075 060 630

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-240359-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CDT MON APR 23 2001

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS INCLUDES METRO HOUSTON AND OTHER CITIES
SUCH AS BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION...CONROE...HUNTSVILLE...CROCKETT...
LIVINGSTON...RICHMOND/ROSENBERG...WHARTON AND COLUMBUS AND GALVESTON.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING.
AT 330 PM THE FRONT WAS ALONG A TYLER TO AUSTIN LINE MOVING SOUTH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALREADY DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
TIME IS 4 PM TO 8 PM...AND THE PRINCIPAL SEVERE THREAT IS LARGE HAIL.
SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND EVENTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH COLLEGE STATION...HUNTSVILLE AND
CROCKETT BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THROUGH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AND OFF THE COAST SHORTLY THEREAFTER.  WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE POSSIBILITY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE EXPECTED FROM
THE STRONGER STORMS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS AFTER 8 PM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS SOURCES FOR THE LATEST
FORECAST...STATEMENTS...AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.