Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
230 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

KHGX LIGHTING UP WITH CONVECTION IN THE LAST 15 MINUTES. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES ARE SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN THREAT THROUGH SAT AM. THE 12Z
NCEP MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...INCLUDING THE FWC/MAV GUIDANCE.
OVERALL PREFER THE ETA. WILL BLEND MAV/FWC FOR MOST PERIODS.

DESPITE SIGNIFICANT MODEL CHANGES...OLD FASHIONED TECHNIQUES SUCH AS
PRESSURE/HEIGHT FALLS SEEM TO SERVE THE FORECAST BEST. NO MAJOR
CHANGES OTHER THAN TO PUSH BACK TIMING OF THE SQUALL LINE TO 08-14Z
(3-9 AM) FOR MOST OF THE CWA. CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLD TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS OCCURRED ON THU. THE CHAMBERS COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED A
FUNNEL CLOUD 7N OF WINNIE AT 155 PM.

OTHERWISE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLD TORNADOES...AND HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THE SQUALL LINE TONIGHT. WILL
RETAIN FFA/RIVER FLOOD WATCH AND SEVERE MENTION. MARINE FORECAST
WILL UPGRADE TO SCA FOR ALL WATERS AS THE LLJ AND INFLOW BOOT WINDS
TONIGHT.

.HGX...FFA ALL ZONES TONIGHT.
       RIVER FA SAN JACINTO/SAN BERNARD/TRES PALACIOS BASINS.
       SCA BAYS AND 0-60NM GULF WATERS.

31/47/WT

PRELIMS...
CLL EU 064/070 050/077 055 +40
IAH TU 072/075 052/076 054 +60
GLS TU 076/076 062/074 065 880

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227
-235>238-131000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2001

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT...

A VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS TURNING AND
STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT IN THE ATMOSPHERE...A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE...AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS
THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. DAMAGING WINDS...
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
LINE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE
VIRTUALLY ALL NIGHT THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 11 PM AND
6 AM FOR THE COLLEGE STATION AREA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...3 AM TO 9 AM FOR HOUSTON METRO AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS...4 AM TO 10 AM FOR COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS.

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS TONIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING.
FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS AND FEEDERS WILL PROBABLY BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM.

THOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE BE OVER BY NOON SATURDAY...THE
UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA AND ASSOCIATED VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY
CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THAT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL. THOUGH IT IS A FAIRLY LOW
PROBABILITY...PORTIONS ALONG AND EAST OF I-45 WILL SEE THE BETTER
CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING.

SINCE MANY OF THE STORMS WILL OCCUR WHEN PEOPLE ARE SLEEPING...IT
WOULD BE WISE TO MAKE SURE YOUR WEATHER RADIO IS TURNED ON SO YOU
WILL HEAR ANY WARNINGS THAT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ISSUES FOR
YOUR AREA. THIS INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE OBTAINED FROM YOUR FAVORITE
MEDIA OUTLET.

REMEMBER...THE BEST PLACE TO BE IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO IS INSIDE A REINFORCED STRUCTURE AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.