Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
257 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2001

SO FAR...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. EXPECT MORE ACTIVITY TO FORM DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SLOW STORM MOTION FAVORS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL (2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE STRONGER STORMS) AND DYNAMICS
ARE STILL STRONG ENOUGH FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (DAMAGING
WINDS STILL GREATEST RISK). AFTER THIS EVENING...OUR BIG PROBLEM IS
TRYING TO TIME IMPULSES AND ASSOCIATED RAINS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LINGERS ACROSS EAST TEXAS THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
GENERALLY CALL FOR 40% POPS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO
EVALUATE SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE CONTINUATION OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.

STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER FALL AIR WILL
SWEEP INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY AS A GREAT
LAKES TROF DEEPENS SHARPLY AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES A CUTOFF LOW.
EXPECT SUNNY MILD DAYS AND CLEAR COOL NIGHTS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND HIGHS AROUND
80. FMR DATA IS FLIRTING WITH RECORD LOWS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL NOT GO THAT COLD (RECORD LOW AT IAH FOR
TUESDAY THE 25TH IS 50 AND FOR WEDNESDAY THE 26TH IS 49). THE COOL
AIR IS COMING

42/47/DO/30/38

.HGX...NONE.

PRELIMS...
CLL EE 071/089 071/085 063 444
IAH EE 071/089 071/085 065 444
GLS EE 079/088 078/086 070 344

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-220400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
330 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2001

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND ON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND DEVELOPING STORMS INTERACT WITH
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE GREATEST RISK WITH
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THROUGH THIS EVENING...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED 2 TO 4 INCH TOTALS
LIKELY IN THE STRONGER AND SLOWER MOVING STORMS. RESIDENTS ACROSS
ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINING AFTERNOON HOURS AND ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN CASE
WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.